2001 PROSPECT WATCH 11-23

The top picks have been analysed.  Now it's time to take a look at the middle of the pack guys, the players who rank from 11-23.  This list will encompass all available players with a career WAR above 10.0.  Eight of the 13 players on this list played in at least one All-Star game.  Of the five that didn't, two of them are still playing to this day.  So while you won't find names like Pujols and Ichiro, there are still some quality players, if not quality seasons from the guys in this pack.

As noted before, the players are ranked here solely on their overall WAR accumulation numbers for their entire MLB career.  With that being said, let's get to the list.

11.)  JACK WILSON - 23.5 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsoja02.shtml
Here is a guy who is never going to be confused for Nomar Garciaparra or Derek Jeter.  Jack Wilson is a very good fielder who put together a couple of good offensive season along the way of his 12-year MLB career.  He can play right out of the box, but his 2001 season is pretty poor offensively.  In 2002, he has a very good season against LHP (.360/.402/.526).  Wilson was an All-Star in 2004 when he belted 41 doubles, 12 triples and 11 homers while batting .308.  He actually won the Silver Slugger Award that year.  He has three more full-time seasons after '04.  His career OPS is only .671, and he never stole more than eight bases in a single season.  Wilson is basically a glove man.

 12.)  JUAN URIBE - 20.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uribeju01.shtml
Juan Uribe arrived in Colorado in 2001 as a 22-year old from the Dominican Republic.  He batted .300 in his rookie season.  And while Uribe has never made an All-Star game, they guy is still playing to this day and is actually improving with age.  He's had a sneaky good career, topping 15 homers a half-dozen times while playing all the infield positions.  He is a very good fielder, actually carrying "A" range at the SS position in both 2002 and 2003.  Uribe had two very good years in San Francisco in 2009 and 2010.  And one could make the argument that his two best years as a player have been his last two in 2013 and 2014, at the age of 34 and 35.

13.)  DAVID ECKSTEIN - 20.8 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eckstda01.shtml
The third straight shortstop to hit the list is David Eckstein, and one could argue that he's the best of the bunch.  Eckstein hits the ground running in 2001 with a very solid season, one that netted him a 4th place finish in the American League ROY voting.  He followed that up with his best offensive season in 2002.  He was traded from Anaheim to St. Louis following the 2004 season and became an All-Star for the Cardinals, making the team in both 2005 and 2006.  Never a source of power, Eckstein finished his career with a .280 BA and .345 OBP while averaging 15 stolen bases per year.


14.)  KYLE LOHSE - 20.8 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lohseky01.shtml
Kyle Lohse is another guy on this list who is getting better with age.  From 2011-2014, he's averaged 13 wins with a 3.30 ERA and 1.157 WHIP.  Unfortunately, his career started a little differently.  From 2001-2010, Lohse average only nine wins with a 4.79 ERA and 1.431 WHIP.  If you draft Lohse with the intention of pitching him out of the gate, you better like high scoring games.  His rookie ERA was 5.68.  He improves in 2002 to a respectable 4.23 ERA in 31 starts.  His first really good year is in 2008 when he won 15 games and posted a 3.78 ERA in 33 starts in his first year in St. Louis (thank you Dave Duncan).


15.)  AARON ROWAND - 20.8 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rowanaa01.shtml
Aaron Rowand breaks in with a solid season, hitting .293 with a .385 OBP in 123 limited at-bats.  He becomes a good to very good player in 2004, a season where he hit .310 with a .910 OPS.  During a four year stretch from 2004 to 2007, Rowand compiles a triple slash line of .289/.348/.474, averaging 34 doubles, 19 home runs and 12 stolen bases during that time frame.  His best season came in 2007 when he hit .309 with 45 doubles and 27 homers, earning him his only All-Star game appearance.  He finishes out his career in San Francisco from 2008-2011, where he slips to a .253/.310/.394 slash line.


16.)  BRANDON INGE - 19.1 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ingebr01.shtml
You will have to wait a few years on Inge if you draft him.  He came up as a catcher, but after three less than stellar seasons behind the plate, he moved into a utility role in 2004 and began to carve out a serviceable career, especially against left-handed pitching.  He has a couple seasons where he hits 27 homers.  He was an All-Star in 2009 despite only hitting .230 for the season.  His best year was probably 2004 when he plays six different positions, hits a career high .287 with a .340 OBP.  Inge's greatest asset is his glove.  He earned either "A" or "A+" range ratings at 3B from 2005 to 2009, seasons which he averaged 19 homers offensively.


17.)  ADAM DUNN - 16.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml
It's hard to believe that Adam Dunn isn't ranked higher on this list.  Truth is, he probably should be, but his WAR numbers have actually been on the decline since he left Cincinnati during the 2008 season.  He broke into the league in 2001, bashing 19 HRs in only 266 at-bats, finishing 4th in the NL ROY voting.  He was an All-Star in 2002 when he hit 26 homers with a .400 OBP.  From 2004-2008, he hit over 40 HRs every year while compiling a .382 OBP and a .915 OPS.  His WAR with the Reds was 16.4 in eight season.  From 2009-2014, his WAR is 0.4 with four different teams, mostly because of poor BA numbers.  For his 14-year career, Dunn has hit  462 home runs while compiling a .365 on-base percentage.

18.)  MARCUS GILES - 16.7 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gilesma01.shtml
Marcus Giles only played seven seasons in the Major League's, retiring after the 2007 season.  In his short career, he had a couple really good years.  His first two years are nothing special as he's a part-time player.  He became a regular in 2003 and was an All-Star that year, hitting .316/.390/.526 with 49 doubles, 21 homers and 14 stolen bases.  His next two years were also quite good.  He averaged 39 doubles, 15 home runs and 16 stolen bases from 2003-2005, compiling a very good .858 OPS from the second-base position.  He declines in 2006 to a .729 OPS.  He declines even further in 2007 to only .621 OPS and as mentioned before, retires after that season.

19.)  JOEL PINEIRO - 13.7 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pineijo01.shtml
Joel Pineiro is an odd case.  He comes into the league with a bang.  Pineiro is 40% limited in 2001, but he's awesome when you can use him, compiling a 2.03 ERA and 0.942 WHIP, limiting right-handed batters to a .150/212/.197 slash line.  His next two years are also very good, with ERA's of 3.24 and 3.78 respectively.  He's actually "jam" rated on his 2002 card.  But after '03 the wheels fall off.  From 2004-2008, his ERA is 5.34 with a 1.471 WHIP.  But then something happens - he remembers how to pitch again (again, thank you Dave Duncan).  In 2009 and 2010, he wins 25 games and has a 3.64 ERA and 1.185 WHIP.


20.)  JAKE WESTBROOK - 12.8 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/westbja01.shtml
Jake Westbrook is the epitome of an average pitcher.  For his 13-year MLB career, he won 105 games compared to 103 losses, compiling a a very average 4.32 ERA and 1.405 WHIP along the way.  If you draft Westbrook you will have to wait a couple years before he's useful.  His first decent year is 2003.  The following season is his best as a pro.  Westbrook was an All-Star in 2004 when he went 14-9 with a 3.38 ERA, earning him a "jam" rating on his card.  His career is interrupted in 2009 due to injury.  He comes back in 2010 and has a 3.48 ERA in 12 starts for St. Louis (Dave Duncan).  He remains very average the rest of his career.  In his final four seasons, he went 42-39 with a 4.34 ERA.

21.)  RYAN FRANKLIN - 11.6 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frankry01.shtml
The next guy on our list is pitcher Ryan Franklin, who splits his time in his career between being a starter and a reliever.  He starts out his career in 2001 out of the bullpen, and has a decent season in long-relief with a 3.56 ERA and decent splits.  He splits his time between the pen and the rotation in 2002 and again is decent.  He becomes a full-time starter in 2003 and has a good year with a 3.57 ERA, earning a "jam" rating.  He continues as a starter in 2004 and 2005 with mixed results before returning to the bullpen full-time in 2006.  Franklin has one exceptional year in 2009 when he earned 38 saves with a 1.92 ERA for the Cardinals (Dave Duncan).

22.)  BRAD WILKERSON - 11.0 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilkebr01.shtml
Brad Wilkerson breaks into the league in 2001 with a limited usage card that is barely usable.  He was technically a rookie in 2002, a season which saw him finish 2nd in the NL ROY voting after compiling a triple slash line of .266/.370/.469 for an .840 OPS.  Wilkerson actually improves on those numbers in 2003 with a .844 OPS while stealing 13 bases, then improves again in 2004 with a .872 OPS, again swiping 13 bags.  He never cracks .800  OPS again in his career, but from 2005-2007 he averages a respectable .757.  For his career, Wilkerson compiled a .350 OBP and averaged nearly 20 homers a year.


23.)  CHAD BRADFORD - 10.0 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradfch01.shtml
Our final guy on the list is reliever Chad Bradford.  If you're looking for a quality arm out of the bullpen who lasts for a long time, Bradford is your guy.  While he was never a closer, accumulating only 11 career saves in his 13 year career, Bradford was a pretty decent setup guy.  From 2001-2008, he compiled a 3.15 ERA.  He never really has a bad season during that stretch, his worst year being 2004 when he had a 4.42 ERA.  He had three seasons with ERA's under 3.00 in that eight year stretch, with only the one above 4.00.  His submarine delivery made him especially good against right-handed batters, who hit only .245 against him in his career.


Some decent players in this group.  A few exceptional, All-Star type seasons.  Half of these guys are good right away, while the other half you will have to wait on a season or two to become valuable.  Next up will be the fringe guys - the one or two year players or utility type guys.  Stay tuned.

MBL POWER RANKINGS - 9/6/14

Not much movement at the top of the POWER RANKINGS as the Pittsburgh Crawfords remain atop the list.  Cleveland overtook San Francisco for the second spot, while Colorado and Arizona flip-flopped their place in the rankings.

RNK	+/-	TEAM 9/6	BAT	PIT	FLD	PCT	PYTH	LUCK
1	0	Pittsburgh Crawfords	11	2	3	.577	.595	(1)
2	1	Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers	5	5	9	.580	.620	(3)
3	(1)	San Francisco Quakers	1	9	15	.654	.661	(1)
4	2	Colorado Briar Jumpers	6	4	14	.557	.573	(1)
5	0	Boston Beaneaters	4	6	21	.642	.578	5
6	(2)	Arizona Apaches	3	10	13	.519	.537	(1)
7	5	Miami Panthers	16	1	16	.593	.573	2
8	6	Baltimore Stouts	2	19	5	.487	.537	(4)
9	1	Brooklyn Broken Arrow Bums	20	8	4	.531	.502	2
10	(1)	St. Louis Sliders	15	3	18	.551	.565	(1)
11	5	Milwaukee Phantoms	10	14	1	.543	.479	5
12	(4)	Toronto Redcoats	8	15	2	.457	.480	(2)
13	(6)	Cincinnati Red Stockings	9	12	11	.531	.501	2
14	(3)	Oakland Osprey	17	7	19	.494	.467	2
15	(2)	Tampa Bay Stone Ponys	7	23	10	.469	.528	(5)
16	2	Detroit Buckeyes	18	17	6	.436	.408	2
17	2	Atlanta Stonecutters	14	18	17	.397	.422	(2)
18	(1)	Houston Buffaloes	24	11	8	.397	.415	(1)
19	1	Seattle Lightning	13	16	23	.513	.431	6
20	2	San Diego Vipers	12	22	24	.474	.408	5
21	0	New York Bombers	23	13	7	.395	.419	(2)
22	(7)	New York Rippers	21	20	12	.407	.443	(3)
23	0	Washington Senators	19	21	22	.423	.485	(5)
24	0	Minnesota Millers	22	24	20	.359	.371	(1)

GLOSSARY

BAT - Batting Rank

PIT - Pitching Rank

FLD - Fielding Rank

PCT - Actual Win Percentage

pyth - Expected Win Percentage

LUCK - Difference between actual wins and expected wins

Three teams made big, positive moves on the list.  The Miami Panthers shot up five spots from 12th to 7th.  They remain the top pitching team for the third consecutive week.  Their big improvement has come in the hitting and fielding categories.  On August 11, the Panthers ranked dead last in the league in hitting and 22nd in fielding.  In the current rankings, they have improved to 16th in both categories.  The improvements have made an impact in the standings as well as Miami has won 14 of their last 17 games, fitting a ten game win streak in the middle of their current run.  They currently sit atop the Classic League's Southeast Division with a ten game lead on their closest competitor.

Another team on the move is the Baltimore Stouts.  Their roller-coaster season sees them jumping six spots in the rankings, improving from 14th on August 20 to 8th currently.  The Stouts have made improvements across the board.  The pitching has finally cracked the top 20 after ranking next to last in the last two lists.  Baltimore has gone 9-1 in the last ten and are winners of 12 of their last 14.

The other big gainer in the list is the Milwaukee Phantoms, who make a five spot gain from 16th to 11th.  Whereas Miami made their gains in hitting and Baltimore in pitching, the Phantoms have made their jump in the fielding category, currently occupying the top spot in the league with the leather.  Milwaukee ranks 4th in overall team fielding percentage, and their catchers have thrown out 12 of 26 opposing base-runners, good for a .462 caught stealing percentage.

Going in the other direction are the New York Rippers and Cincinnati Red Stockings.  The Rippers have dropped seven spots from 15th to 22nd, while the Red Stockings have fallen from 7th to 13th.  Both teams have struggled in the standings of late.  Cincinnati has gone 10-14 since the last rankings, while the Rippers are in a free-fall, going only 4-17 in their last 21 games.

WESTERN DIVISION SPOTLIGHT

Up next in the DIVISION SPOTLIGHT series, we head to the Expansion League to examine the highly competitive Western Division.  The top three teams in this division are within three games of one another, all holding onto positive run differentials.  This race promises to go down to the wire.  Let's take a team-by-team look and see how they each fared in the draft and how they look into the future.

COLORADO BRIAR JUMPERS
Ballpark:  Coors Field
Power Rank:  6
Division Standing:  1 
Projected Record:  89-73
Biggest Strength:  Outfield
Greatest Weakness:  Overall Team Defense
Most Important Pitcher:  Greg Maddux, SP
Most Important Position Player:  Gary Sheffield, OF
Young Stud:  Rick Ankiel (20), SP
Roster Dud:  Brett Boone, 2B
Surprise Player:  Mike Lowell, 3B

Draft Recap:  Colorado selected 8th overall in the draft and scored big with their first several selections.  First pick Greg Maddux has been outstanding so far, going 11-5 with a 2.34 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and seven complete games.  Gary Sheffield, selected in the 3rd round, has been the team's hitting star.  He currently has a .353 average with 19 doubles and 17 home runs.  He leads the team in runs scored with 58, is second in RBI with 54 and has a 1.139 OPS.  The team's surprise player, Mike Lowell, was selected in the 6th round.  He leads the Briar Jumpers in RBI with 57 and is batting .304 with 20 doubles and 11 homers.  Manager Jason Speaks waited to fill his bullpen with late selections and it paid off.  Anthony Telford (23rd), Scott Sauerbeck (26th) and Heathcliff Slocumb (28th) have gone a combined to go 5-1 with six saves and a 3.56 ERA in 73.1 innings.

2000 Outlook:  Jason has his team primed to make a push for a playoff spot in our current season.  Unfortunately, the Briar Jumpers play in the MBL's most competitive division with three of the four teams within three games of one another in the standings.  One thing Colorado has going for them is that they are good at just about everything.  Team speed and defense leaves a little to be desired, but the team hits well, gets on base well, slugs well and pitches well.  The staff has four quality starters in Maddux, Rick Ankiel, Gil Heredia and Pat Hentgen.  The bullpen has no clear cut closer, but five relievers have combined for 16 saves.

Offensively, the outfield is hard to beat.  Sheffield and Darin Erstad both have batting averages over .350 and on-base percentages over .400.  Third outfielder Brian Jordan is a menace against left-handed pitching, hitting an out-of-this-world .491 with a 1.317 OPS.  The catching platoon of Brook Fordyce and Jorge Fabregas has been a pleasant surprise, combining to hit .350 with 12 homers and 49 RBI.  A key to the rest of the season could be the production of 2B Bret Boone.  He's struggled to date, batting only .213 with three home runs.  If he can get on track, the lineup should improve on their 5.3 runs per game.

Future Outlook:  Unfortunately for Jason and his Briar Jumpers, the future may be now in Colorado.  Three quarters of the starting rotation, with the exception of Greg Maddux, are of little or no help to the staff in the year 2001.  Ankiel forgets how to pitch and is useless.  Hentgen pitches well next season, but only for nine spot starts before being un-carded in 2002.  Heredia sees his ERA jump from a usable 4.12 in 2000 to an iffy 5.58 in 2001, his last season in MLB.  Eric Gagne will probably man one of the rotation spots next year.  His real value though comes from 2002-2004 when he's the best reliever in baseball for the three year stretch.
Bret Boone has a career year in 2001, a season which saw him hit .351 with a .950 OPS.  He follows that up with a couple more good season, both offensively and defensively.  Jim Thome is another Briar Jumper who improves next season and beyond.  In 2001, he begins a four year stretch where he bashes 190 home runs and has an average OPS of 1.021.  For the decade, Thome blasts 356 homers to go along with a .400 OBP.

The rest of the offense though either doesn't improve or gets worse.  Sheffield and Lowell perform at about the same rate.  The catcher platoon though of Fordyce and Fabregas is useless beyond our current season.  Darin Erstad follows up his career year in 2000 by batting only .258 with nine homers in 2001.  As a matter of fact, from 2001-2005 he combines to hit just .274 with a .700 OPS.

Colorado has their full compliment of draft picks at their disposal.  They will obviously need to address the holes that they will have in the rotation for 2001 and beyond.  A catcher(s) is also a necessity.

ARIZONA APACHES
Ballpark:  Chase Field
Power Rank:  4
Division Standing:  2
Projected Record: 88-74 
Biggest Strength:  Offense
Greatest Weakness:  Shortstop
Most Important Pitcher:  Mariano Rivera, RP
Most Important Position Player:  Jeff Kent, 2B
Young Stud:  Ryan Dempster (23), SP
Roster Dud:  Ramon Ortiz, SP
Surprise Player:  Chris Truby, 3B

Draft Recap:  Arizona had a very successful start to the 2000 MBL Draft, scooping up NL MVP Jeff Kent with their first overall selection, 20th overall, then coming back in the 2nd round and securing the services of Marioano Rivera.  Kent was a steal in the 1st round.  Rivera could be considered the steal of the 2nd round.  The rotation was addressed in the next two rounds with David Wells and Ryan Dempster coming into the fold.  Starting catcher Brent Mayne, filling in for the injured Mike Lieberthal, was selected in the 21st round.  He's played in 62 of the Apaches 66 games to date and has a .316 batting average.  29th round selection Chris Truby is 20-47 with a 1.055 OPS in limited duty.

2000 Outlook:  Tom has assembled a bona fide contender this season.  The Apache offense is arguably the best in MBL, ranking in the top-10 in every offensive category.  They currently lead the league in slugging percentage, are third in batting average and second in OPS.  Arizona has a very balanced attack, with every lineup regular is hitting between .283 and .320, with the lone exception of Shawn Green, who is batting .246.

The key to the Arizona season will probably boil down to how well the pitching staff performs.  The bullpen is very good with Rivera closing out games.  He's setup by Jeff Nelson, who sports a 3.04 ERA in a team-leading 34 appearances.  The rest of the relievers are struggling somewhat, blowing four saves and combining for a 5.57 ERA.

The starting rotation is solid if unspectacular.  The top three of Wells, Dempster and Paul Abbott have all performed decently, combining for a 4.01 ERA.  Kenny Rogers and Ramon Ortiz came over mid-season via trade and have yet to get on track, combining for a 7.71 ERA in eight starts.  If those two can pitch to their norm, look for the Apaches to make a move in the standings.

Future Outlook:  Arizona is another team that looks to regress next season, especially offensively.  The only player who improves from 2000 to 2001 is right-fielder Shawn Green, who has back-to-back MVP caliber seasons the next two years.  He belts 91 homers and has a combined .957 OPS in arguably the two best seasons of his career.  Other than him though, nobody improves.  Kent is still Kent, but he never replicates his 2000 numbers again.  Edgar Martinez is Edgar Martinez for a couple more seasons before he retires.  Shannon Stewart is remarkably consistent for the next few seasons with OPS numbers between .813 and .834 from 2001-2004.  Every other lineup contributor gets worse.  Tony Batista goes from 41 homers to 21.  Mark Quinn loses 25 points off his batting average, from .294 to .269 and only manages a .298 OBP.  He's done after 2001.  Behind the plate, Lieberthal is AB limited, while Mayne is about the same.

Pitching-wise, the core of the rotation, Wells, Dempster and Rogers, all have poor 2001 seasons.  Rogers is especially bad with a 6.19 ERA in 20 starts.  Wells and Rogers rebound with solid seasons in 2002, while Dempster struggles as a starter before finding himself again as a closer for the Cubs in 2005.  The staff will add Jon Garland in 2001.  He's average to above-average for the rest of the decade.  Ramon Ortiz has two good years in 2001 and 2002 before becoming bad in 2003.

Unfortunately, the Apaches have traded their 1st and 2nd round picks in the upcoming draft.  The team will likely take a step backwards in 2001 barring a trade or two.  The offense is destined to regress, and the pitching staff doesn't look to improve either, despite the addition of Garland to the rotation.

ST. LOUIS SLIDERS
Ballpark:  New Busch Stadium
Power Rank:  9
Division Standing:  3 
Projected Record:  87-75
Biggest Strength:  Top-4 Rotation
Greatest Weakness:  Outfield, Aging Veterans
Most Important Pitcher:  Al Leiter, SP
Most Important Position Player:  Mark McGwire, 1B
Young Stud:  Adam Eaton (22), SP
Roster Dud:  Greg Vaughn, RF
Surprise Player:  Billy Koch, RP

Draft Recap:  Manager Mike Parker took over the St. Louis franchise shortly after the season began, so he was not the one who assembled the Sliders roster as it currently exists.  Mark McGwire was the teams first overall pick, selected 22nd overall.  And while Big Mac is currently pacing the entire MBL in home runs, he carries "F" durability this year and next before retiring in 2002.  A couple of solid starting pitchers, Al Leiter and Livan Hernandez, were picked up in the 2nd and 4th rounds respectively.  They anchor the pitching staff.  In a curious move, 5th round selection Ryan Klesko was traded away for Mo Vaughn, who was picked in the 23rd round.  Closer Billy Koch was taken in the 9th round, the 11th relief pitcher drafted.  He has been lights out so far with a 0.99 ERA and 16 saves.  Tony Gwynn, selected in the 23rd round, leads the team in batting with a .355 average in his penultimate campaign.

2000 Outlook:  St. Louis is a team on the move.  When Mike took over the team, the Sliders record was 10-11.  After losing his their first four games under their new manager, the team has taken off.  Their record since May 4 is a remarkable 27-11.  That's a .710 win percentage.  They have had winning streaks of four, five and seven games.  The Sliders are also the only team in the Millennium League yet to lose a game in extra-inning games, going 5-0 in extended contests to date.  .Needless to say, Mike has done a remarkable job since taking over.  

The key to the remainder of the 2000 season for the Sliders will be their ability to avoid the injury bug.  The team is paced offensively by a quartet of "F" durable players in McGwire, Gwynn, 3B Ken Caminiti and 2B Craig Biggio.  Those four typically slot as the 2-5 batters in the lineup.  The honeymoon could be over if any or all of them go down for an extended period of time.  McGwire has 53 hits, 30 of which are long balls.  Gwynn, as mentioned before, leads the team in hitting.  Caminiti has yet to miss a single game.  He's belted 18 homers and compiled a .922 OPS.  Another player with durability issues, Greg Vaughn, could stand to miss some time though.  He's struggling at the plate, hitting .208 overall and only .194 against right-handed pitching.

Pitching is where the Sliders excel.  The staff as a whole ranks 4th overall in the MBL.  Leiter and Hernandez, as well as third starter Adam Eaton, have been as good as advertised.  The fourth man in the rotation, Steve Trachsel, has performed beyond expectations, compiling a 3.30 ERA in nine starts. Closer Koch has completed all 16 save chances.

Future Outlook:  St. Louis is yet another team who is in trouble in 2001 and beyond.  Mo Vaughn is done after 2000.  McGwire, Gwynn and Caminiti are limited next year and are done after 2001.  It will be hard to replace all that production in the lineup.  Biggio does stick around for a few more years, playing regularly and collecting 1000+ more hits before retiring in 2007.  Roger Cedeno swipes 55 bags and hits .293 next year, so he has some value.  Jose Valentin is also decent.  He averages 28 homers a year from 2001-2004, but only hits .240 during that span with a .312 OBP.

The rotation for the Sliders is a little iffy as well the next few years.  Leiter is solid, carrying a sub-4 ERA through 2004.  Trachsel is also good during the same span.  But Hernandez struggles in 2001 before stringing together four straight solid season between 2002 and 2005.  Eaton is "F" durable in 2001 and is only good for six spot starts the following year.  He does come back with three usable years from 2003-2005.  There is no real help for the rotation on the roster.  Blake Stein will probably occupy a rotation spot next season, but that doesn't excite anyone, and he's done after 2001.  The bullpen will also take a step back as Koch struggles next year as well.

Mike has the Sliders full compliment of picks at his disposal for the 2001 draft.  This team is in need of an infusion of youth.  The lineup will definitely need to be addressed, unless St. Louis wants to roll the dice another year with "F" durability players.  An extra arm for the rotation should also be a priority.

HOUSTON BUFFALOES
Ballpark:  Astrodome
Power Rank:  17
Division Standing:  4 
Projected Record:  69-93
Biggest Strength:  Youth
Greatest Weakness:  Offense
Most Important Pitcher:  Reid Cornelius, SP
Most Important Position Player:  Jeff Frye, 2B
Young Stud:  Roy Halladay (23), SP
Roster Dud:  Reggie Sanders, OF
Surprise Player:  Desi Relaford, SS

Draft Recap:  Houston used their first two selections in the draft on Manny Ramirez and Scott Rolen.  Both are now members of the New York Rippers.  In rounds four and five, the team selected Johnny Damon and Johan Santana.  Those two are now on the Toronto Red Coats.  In between, The Buffaloes selected Roy Halladay, who is arguably the best pitcher of the next decade.  Jeff Frye, the team's leading hitter, was taken in the 16th round.  William actually has struck gold with several late round selections.  20th round pick Rod Beck has allowed only one run in 14 innings of work.  21st round selection Reid Cornelius has thrown the league's only no-hitter to date.  24th round pick Willie Blair is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA in 19 appearances.  The 25th round netted starting first-baseman Wally Joyner, while the 29th round brought in starting shortstop Desi Relaford.  That's quite an impressive haul for the last third of the draft!

2000 Outlook:  While the top three teams in the Western Division battle it out for a coveted playoff birth, the Houston franchise has begun to rebuild.  The offense would be a good starting point as the Buffaloes rank dead last in runs per game, scoring only 4.3 times per game on average.  They are also the league's worst at OBP, getting on base at .326 clip.  The team's .714 OPS is tied for last in the league.  No batter on the team has more than seven home runs.  The St. Louis Sliders Mark McGwire has 30 home runs himself.  The Buffaloes as a team have only hit 53, and 15 of those are by players no longer on the team.  Wally Joyner leads the team in RBI with a mere 27.  Outfielder Reggie Sanders has been especially poor, hitting only .181 with a .219 on-base average.  His total OPS is .558.  In 151 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Sanders is hitting only .159.

Future Outlook:  Whereas the other teams in the division look to regress in 2001, Houston is a team looking to make a surge to the top of the standings.  This team is very young, especially compared to the other team's in this division.  The pitching staff will be headed by 23-year-old Roy Halladay for the next decade.  From 2001-2011, Halladay is phenomenal, averaging 16 wins while compiling a 2.98 ERA.  He pitched in eight All-Star games during that span, won two Cy Young Awards, finished second in the voting twice, third once and fifth two more times.  In 2001 he is limited to half the season.  Joe Mays will likely head the staff next year.  He had an outstanding season in 2001, leading the American League in ERA+ while compiling an actual ERA of 3.16.  He's "jam" rated and held opposing hitters to a .235 average.  Jason Johnson also becomes a full-time starter in 2001, starting 32 games with a 4.09 ERA.

The bullpen seems to be in fine shape as well.  Arthur Rhodes is nearly un-hittable in 2001, a season which saw him go 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.853 WHIP.  He continues to pitch sporadically well for the remainder of the decade.  Rod Beck, Ramiro Mendoza and Rolando Arrojo all are decent next season and provide depth for the bullpen.

The offensive outlook is even brighter for the Buffaloes.  Young studs David Ortiz and Paul Konerko are waiting in the wings, as well as A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Guillen.  Those four are all under the age of 25 in 2001.  They will join a lineup led by Luis Gonzalez, who had his career best year in 2001 when he hit 57 home runs and had a 1.117 OPS.  That's rarefied air there.  Gonzalez is actually a good player through the 2008 season.  Desi Relaford has his career best year as well in 2001.  Not 1.117 OPS good, but good nonetheless (.302 BA, .836 OPS).  Holdovers Bobby Higginson, Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzielanek, Aaron Boone and Benito Santiago perform decently enough to give Houston a pretty solid lineup for 2001.

Houston has stocked up on draft picks for the upcoming draft, acquiring two additional 3rd round picks as well as an extra 4th rounder.  That gives them seven selections in the first four rounds.  Worst to first?  I think it seems likely for the Buffaloes in 2001.

MBL POWER RANKINGS - 8/20/14

Pittsburgh vaults to the top of the POWER RANKINGS this week after going 8-2 in their last ten games.  The Crawfords are solid across the board, ranking in the top six in each graded category.  Another Rust Belt Division team, the Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers, are the only other squad in the MBL who rank in the top-10 in batting, pitching and fielding.  The biggest positive mover in the rankings is the Brooklyn Broken Arrow Bums, who are winners of eight in a row and nine of their last ten.  They slide into the 10th spot after ranking 18th last week.  On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Baltimore Stouts are in a free-fall, dropping seven spots from 7th to 14th.  They are an interesting case as they rank in the top four in both batting and fielding, but are next to last in overall pitching.  Regardless, the Stouts are still one of the unluckiest teams, along with Cleveland, when it comes to expected wins.  Both teams, based on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem, have five fewer wins than they should have at this point.  The same principal indicates that both Boston and Seattle are winning with a little luck to date.

RNK	+/-	TEAM 8/20	BAT	PIT	FLD	PCT	PYTH	LUCK
1	2	Pittsburgh Crawfords	6	2	1	.621	.629	(1)
2	(1)	San Francisco Quakers	1	6	16	.667	.660	0
3	1	Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers	7	7	8	.551	.617	(5)
4	(2)	Arizona Apaches	2	10	13	.530	.543	(1)
5	1	Boston Beaneaters	3	8	23	.635	.561	5
6	(1)	Colorado Briar Jumpers	10	5	17	.556	.545	1
7	4	Cincinnati Red Stockings	9	12	11	.561	.542	1
8	0	Toronto Redcoats	8	18	2	.439	.481	(3)
9	4	St. Louis Sliders	17	4	15	.517	.536	(1)
10	8	Brooklyn Broken Arrow Bums	16	9	5	.515	.509	0
11	(1)	Oakland Osprey	18	3	21	.492	.474	1
12	2	Miami Panthers	22	1	20	.536	.512	2
13	(4)	Tampa Bay Stone Ponys	5	19	10	.476	.543	(4)
14	(7)	Baltimore Stouts	4	23	4	.409	.481	(5)
15	(3)	New York Rippers	13	13	12	.476	.486	(1)
16	(1)	Milwaukee Phantoms	11	21	6	.530	.476	4
17	(1)	Houston Buffaloes	23	11	3	.413	.427	(1)
18	4	Detroit Buckeyes	19	17	7	.439	.408	2
19	1	Atlanta Stonecutters	15	15	14	.397	.405	(1)
20	(3)	Seattle Lightning	14	14	19	.540	.456	5
21	0	New York Bombers	21	16	9	.417	.415	0
22	(3)	San Diego Vipers	12	22	24	.476	.415	4
23	0	Washington Senators	20	20	18	.429	.496	(4)
24	0	Minnesota Millers	24	24	22	.364	.369	(0)

GLOSSARY

BAT - Batting Rank

PIT - Pitching Rank

FLD - Fielding Rank

PCT - Actual Win Percentage

PYTH - Expected Win Percentage

LUCK - Difference between actual wins and expected wins

2001 PROSPECT WATCH

We will use this space to take a look at some of the "prospects" becoming available in the 2001 MBL Draft.  A few things to consider as we begin.  First, the players are ranked based solely on the overall WAR accumulation for their entire MLB career.  While this may not be the best way to rank the "prospects", it's the way I'm doing it for our purposes here.  These are not my rankings.  This is also not a mock draft, or the way I feel these players should be drafted.  Again, this is a straight ranking based solely on the players career WAR (wins above replacement player) numbers.

So with all that being said, here is the first installment, the top-10 rated overall prospects for the 2001 Millennium League Draft.

1.)  ALBERT PUJOLS - 96.1 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml
Not a whole lot needs to be said about Albert Pujols.  He was hands down the best player of the first decade of the 21st Century.  No dispute.  The numbers do not lie.  Pujols won the NL Rookie-of-the-Year Award in 2001, a year which saw him finish 4th in the MVP balloting.  For the remainder of the decade, he wins three MVP awards, finishes second four other times, and throws a third place finish in there for good measure.  His OPS for the decade was 1.050.  The great thing about Pujols is that he also excels defensively, winning a pair of Gold Glove awards in his career.  Whoever drafts him is getting arguably the best player in the history of the game.


2.)  ICHIRO SUZUKI - 58.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml
The consolation prize for missing out on Pujols will most likely be Ichiro.  In most years, he would be the hands down top pick, but not in 2001.  Regardless, whoever is lucky enough to select the talented Japanese star is in for a long career of production.  Ichiro broke onto the scene in by storm, winning both the AL Rookie-of-the-Year and MVP awards in 2001, a season that saw him lead the league in batting with a .350 mark and in stolen bases with 56.  He's an All-Star in each of his first ten seasons, winning the Gold Glove award every single year from 2001-2010..  He leads the AL in hits seven times during the decade.  His batting average for the decade is .331.  He averages 159 games played as well.  Stick him in RF and forget about him for ten years.

3.)  CC SABATHIA - 53.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml
Our first pitcher to hit the list is talented left-handed starter CC Sabathia.  He's another player who joined the league by storm, going 17-5 in his rookie campaign, finishing second in the Rookie-of-the-Year balloting to Ichiro.  Although Sabathia is good the first five years of his career, he really gets cranking towards the middle of the decade.  For a seven year span between 2006 and 2012, he has a combined ERA of 3.14 in 226 starts.  His ERA+ over than span is 140.  A six time All-Star, he won one Cy Young award and finished 5th or better in the balloting five times.  His career is not Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez good, but he's high quality for a very, very long time.

4.)  ROY OSWALT - 49.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oswalro01.shtml
Yet another rookie who took to the league with great aplomb, right-hander Roy Oswalt went 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA in his debut season.  He finished 2nd behind Pujols in the NL ROY vote.  Whereas Sabathia's career really kicks into gear a few years into it, Oswalt's first seven seasons are pretty much his best.  From 2001 to 2007, he has an ERA of 3.07.  In five of those seven seasons, his ERA is 3.01 or less.  And while he never did win a Cy Young award in his career, Oswalt did finish 5th or better five times in that seven year stretch to begin his career.  In 2010, he led the NL in WHIP and had a 2.76 ERA in 32 starts.

5.)  JOSH BECKETT - 35.6 WAR

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckejo02.shtml
If you draft Josh Beckett, you will have to wait for him a year before he helps your team.  He is carded in the 2001 season, but he only had four spot starts.  The big concern for whomever drafts Beckett will be his durability.  He doesn't start 30 games in a year until the 2006 season.  For his career, he's only started 30 or more games four times in his 14 years in the league.  From 2001-2011, he averaged 25 starts with a 3.84 ERA, striking out nearly a batter an inning.  Beckett is a three time All-Star selection.  He finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in his best season of 2007 when he went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA in 30 starts.


6.)  BRIAN ROBERTS - 30.2 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbr01.shtml
The first middle-infielder to hit the list is second-baseman Brian Roberts.  While he's not as sexy as some of the names ahead of him, Roberts has had a very fine career nonetheless.  He's also a guy that if you draft him, you're gonna have to wait for him to become a regular contributor.  His first season as an everyday starter is 2004, a season which saw him lead the AL in doubles with 50.  He also led all of MLB in doubles in 2009 with 56.  In between is basically where you get most all of his production.  From 04-09, Roberts is one of the best 2B in MLB, with a .290 average and .803 OPS.  He also averaged 35 steals per year during that stretch.

7.)  TED LILLY - 29.0 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lillyte01.shtml
Ted Lilly is another guy you will have to wait on for his best years.  While he does pitch beginning in 2001, the bullish left-hander doesn't really come into his own until later in the decade.  From 2001-2006, the two time All-Star averages 26 starts with a 4.51 ERA and 1.369 WHIP.  From 2007-2011, he improves across the board, averaging 32 starts per year with a 3.74 ERA and 1.134 WHIP.  He's not horrible early in his career, but if you have the patience to wait on him, he'll pay you off on down the line.



8.)  VERNON WELLS - 28.5 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml
Vernon Wells is a limited use player in 2001.  He doesn't begin playing full-time until the following season.  From 2002-2011, he's one of the better center-fielders in the game.  During that ten year stretch, he averages 147 games, 34 doubles and 25 homers a season.  The three-time All-Star selection is also an excellent player defensively, winning the Gold Glove award two times.  His 2003 season is especially good as he led all of MLB in hits, led the AL in doubles with 49 and had an OPS of .909.  He's "clutch" rated that season, an "8" base-runner and has "A" range in the field.


9.)  BEN SHEETS - 26.1 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheetbe01.shtml
If not for injuries that plagued his career, Ben Sheets would be ranked much higher on this list.  From 2001-2008, Sheets was an All-Star four times, including his debut season.  He had an incredible season in 2004.  That season saw him compile a 2.70 ERA and a remarkable 0.983 WHIP.  He had 264 Ks in 237 innings.  He also led the league in K/W with a mark of 8.25.  Sheets injured himself in 2005 and carries "F" durablilty for the following two seasons.  He starts 31 games in 2008 with a 3.09 ERA before injuring himself again, costing him the entire 2009 season.



10.)  MICHAEL YOUNG - 24.4 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml
The final member of the Top-10 Prospect List is versatile infielder Michael Young.  He begins his career as a second-baseman and spends his first three years at that position.  He switches to shortstop in 2004 and goes to five consecutive All-Star games.  During those years, he compiles a triple slash line of .311/.360/.456, averaging 158 games, 40 doubles and 16 homers.  Only a handful of SS can compare offensively.  Young switches to third-base in 2009 and continures hit.  He is selected to two more All-Star games in the next three years.


There you have it.  The Top-10 "prospects" for the upcoming draft.  All of the above players will be valuable lineup contributors for several seasons.  The top four players on the list are bona fide studs.  Pujols and Ichiro are first-ballot Hall-of-Famers.  Stay tuned to find out who will be players 11-20.