MBL POWER RANKINGS - 1/25/2015

So the games have started and each team in the league has at least a week's worth of games under their belt.  In addition, each team has played every team in their own division at least once.  I figure I would go ahead and try to run the early season numbers and see how the team's are faring in the early going with the first edition of the in-season power rankings.

I'm running the numbers similar to the way I ran them last season.  I basically rank the team's in various offensive, pitching, and fielding categories, put all of the rankings together, then have the computer spit out an overall ranking for each team.  Nothing too earth shattering.  And please keep in mind, this first edition is a very small sample size.  Some teams have only nine games under their belt so far.  This especially screws with the fielding rankings.  I ran the rankings the same as I did last year, but some teams don't have enough counting stats to really make the rankings accurate.  For this reason, fielding is only weighted in the overall rankings half of what batting and pitching is counted.

So with all that said, let's see who graded out the best so far!

RNK	+/-	TEAM	BAT	PIT	FLD	PCT	rDiff	PYTH	xW	xL	LUCK
1	11	Boston Beaneaters	5	1	2	.800	46	.790	12	3	0
2	0	New York Rippers	13	5	4	.667	13	.610	9	6	1
3	0	Baltimore Stouts	4	10	19	.750	19	.646	8	4	1
4	13	Arizona Apaches	1	15	5	.556	0	.500	5	5	1
5	6	Washington Tribe	10	7	15	.733	17	.603	9	6	2
6	(2)	Seattle Lightning	15	3	16	.778	14	.643	6	3	1
7	2	Detroit Buckeyes	2	13	14	.500	9	.564	7	5	(1)
8	(7)	Minnesota Millers	19	6	6	.533	0	.500	8	8	1
9	(1)	Colorado Briar Jumpers	9	11	21	.556	13	.629	6	3	(1)
10	(3)	Oakland Osprey	21	2	22	.444	(3)	.461	4	5	(0)
11	7	Pittsburgh Crawfords	3	14	23	.583	(10)	.437	5	7	2
12	(6)	San Francisco Quakers	23	4	7	.444	1	.513	5	4	(1)
13	1	Los Angeles Diablos	14	12	8	.333	(1)	.493	7	8	(2)
14	10	Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers	7	24	3	.333	(6)	.450	4	5	(1)
15	6	Cincinnati Red Stockings	6	18	18	.556	7	.566	5	4	(0)
16	3	Milwaukee Phantoms	16	19	1	.417	(18)	.362	4	8	1
17	(12)	Houston Buffaloes	8	17	17	.556	3	.533	5	4	0
18	(8)	Miami Panthers	20	8	24	.417	1	.509	6	6	(1)
19	(6)	Atlanta Stonecutters	11	20	9	.417	(7)	.450	5	7	(0)
20	(4)	San Diego Vipers	24	9	13	.333	(12)	.350	3	6	(0)
21	1	St. Louis Sliders	12	23	20	.333	(16)	.358	3	6	(0)
22	(2)	Brooklyn BABums	17	21	10	.267	(31)	.303	5	10	(1)
23	(8)	Washington Senators	18	22	12	.400	(11)	.431	6	9	(0)
24	(1)	New York Bombers	22	16	11	.267	(28)	.300	4	11	(0)

GLOSSARY

RNK - Overall Power Ranking +/- - Difference between this ranking and the team's last ranking BAT - Batting Rank

PIT - Pitching Rank

FLD - Fielding Rank

PCT - Actual Win Percentage rDIFF - Run Differential

PYTH - Expected Win Percentage xW - Expected Wins xL - Expected Losses

LUCK - Difference between actual wins and expected wins

Seeing as this is the first edition of the 2001 In-Season Power Rankings, let me explain what you are looking at in the above table.  The RNK column is the actual power ranking for the individual teams.  Pretty self-explanatory.  This is a combination of  the BAT, PIT and FLD columns.  These three columns represent where each team ranks in each of the individual categories.  So as we see from the table, the Boston Beaneaters are ranked #1 overall in the power rankings.  They are the #5 rated hitting team, the #1 rated pitching team and they come in at #2 defensively.  To come up with these different category rankings, I looked at several different sub-categories within the overall batting, pitching and fielding categories.

PCT is the team's actual win percentage to date.  rDIFF is the team's run differential on the year.  PYTH is the team's expected win percentage based on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem of baseball.  Basically, the formula relates a team's runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record. xW and xL are a team's expected wins and losses based on the PYTH number.  LUCK is the difference between actual wins and expected wins.  A positive number means the team is performing better than expected, while a negative number indicates a team theoretically in under-performing.

As we see from the table, the Washington Tribe and Pittsburgh Crawfords have each won two more games than they were expected to win, i.e. they have been "lucky".  On the other hand the Los Angelas Diablos have been "unlucky" to date, having lost two games that they theoretically should have won.  Basically, even though Washington has gone 11-4 so far through 15 games, the PYTH formula is stating that their actual record should only be 9-6, while LA, instead of 5-10 should be 7-8.  Obviously we're very early on and the PYTH number will change dramatically in the coming weeks as teams get more games under their belts.

Here are a few observations as I look at the rankings:

• Boston Beaneaters obviously didn't grade out well in the preseason rankings, but comes home in the top spot here.  Their pitching will grade out throughout the course of the season higher than the preseason rankings gave them credit for, that's for sure.  They are also the only team in the league to rank in the top-10 in all three categories.
• Top two teams in the rankings both reside in the Classic Division's Metro Division as the New York Rippers come home #2.  If this team can get Randy Johnson in gear, look out.  They still graded out as the fifth best pitching squad despite the Big Unit's struggles.  And they are sure to improve on their offensive numbers as well.  The squad was ranked third offensively in the preseason rankings.
• The Baltimore Stouts have the second best rDIFF in the league thus far.  They're sitting at 9-3 in the early going.  Their ranking is hurt by the fielding numbers, and that is mainly due to the injury to Ivan Rodriguez.  When and if he can get back in the lineup and stay healthy, their fielding ranking will most certainly improve.
• The most surprising team in the rankings, at least when you compare where they were ranked in the preseason, is the Arizona Apaches.  They were ranked 17th in the preseason rankings, but find their way to the 4th spot here. Their high standing is based to their league leading offense to date.  The team ranks only 10th in runs per game, but has the top squad in terms of batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
• Walt's Minnesota Millers have been a bit of a disappointment through their first 15 games, going only 8-7.  They held the top spot in the preseason rankings, but only grade out 8th in the early going.  Their offense just needs to get in gear, only able to muster a 19th ranking so far.  That's sure to improve in short order.
• The defending champion Colorado Briar Jumpers fall in right behind Minnesota in the 9th spot.  The PYTH numbers say they have been slightly unlucky so far far, and they do sport a +13 rDIFF. 
• A strange team to figure out through their first nine games in the Oakland Osprey.  They rank in the bottom four in the league in both offense and fielding, but their staff comes home with a 2nd place ranking in the pitching category.  That's good enough to vault them into 10th overall.
• Two team's that sat atop of the standing last season, the Pittsburgh Crawfords and the San Francisco Quakers, come home in the 11th and 12th spots respectively in the rankings.  Each team has been victimized in one category in the early going.  Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in fielding, while the Quakers are a surprising 23rd in offense.
• The demise of the Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers may be exaggerated.  Ranking dead last in the preseason rankings, they actually come home in the 14th spot here.  Their pitching is still going to be a concern, ranking dead last.  That's what happens when you sport the league's highest ERA and WHIP.
• Whereas Arizona made a positive jump up 13 spots from the preseason to these rankings, the Houston Buffaloes went the other direction.  They were the 5th ranked team in the preseason rankings, but fall to 17th here.  Interestingly enough, the Buffaloes are tied along with Arizona and Colorado in their division, each with 5-4 records.  And while Arizona grades out as the highest ranked team, they are the only one of the three without a positive rDIFF thus far.
• The Classic League's Metro Division has the top two teams in these rankings.  They also have two of the bottom three teams as well.  The Brooklyn Broken Arrow Bums grade out 22nd, while the New York Bombers bring up the rear, ranking 24th.  Both teams are no doubt looking forward to some games outside of their division.

Please feel free to leave any comments or make any suggestions.  The next edition will obviously have more games played, so more data to analyse.  Hopefully the rankings will even themselves out a little.  Until then.

MBL POWER RANKIINGS - 1/17/2015

Welcome the the first edition of the MBL POWER RANKINGS for the 2001 season.  What I've done for these initial rankings is similar to what I did for the Continental Division preview.  I projected the starting lineups and pitching staffs for each individual team in the league.  I then assigned the WAR value associated with each individual player.  You can in essence look at these rankings as team WAR rankings.  In future editions, I will revert back to the formula I used last season to rank the teams.  But without any season data to work from, I figured this would at least give us some data to look at and a means to rank the teams.

One thing to keep in mind as you look at these initial rankings is that I am the one projecting the lineups and staffs.  The actual lineups an individual manager may use in all likelihood will be much different that what I have projected.  So while this is a fun way to take a look at how the teams stack up, it's really a lot of my interpretation of who a team should play and pitch based on player WAR ratings.  Also, many teams will be using platoons in their lineups and different pitching staff configurations.  These rankings really have no way of factoring these things into them.  The WAR ratings for the individual players are their whole WAR rating, not broken down platoon style.  I guess if somebody wanted to really go into depth to figure out each teams best lineup against RHP and LHP, or how often a fifth starter would be used, then these rankings would be a little more realistic.  I didn't want to go into that much detail and analysis, so what you see here is what you get.

I will break this down into the four hitting categories of catching (team top two), infield, outfield and bench (three players).  The pitching is simply broken down into starters (five) and bullpen (six).  Let's get it started with the catchers.

CATCHER

RANK	TEAM	C1		C2		WAR
1	BAL	I.Rodriguez	5.0	W.Gonzalez	1.0	6.0
2	MIN	P.LoDuca	4.6	T.Prince	0.7	5.3
3	NYR	M.Piazza	4.4	E.Guzman	(0.4)	4.0
4	SD	C.Johnson	2.4	M.Johnson	1.1	3.5
5	HOU	AJ.Pierzknski	1.8	S.Wooten	1.2	3.0
6	SF	D.Wilson	2.1	T.Lampkin	0.9	3.0
7	CIN	E.Diaz	2.8	T.Eusebio	0.1	2.9
8	OAK	J.Posada	3.0	S.Fasano	(0.1)	2.9
9	STL	D.Mirabelli	1.4	G.Zaun	1.1	2.5
10	TRI	R.Hernandez	2.2	J.Cardona	0.3	2.5
11	SEN	J.Veritek	1.4	V.Wilson	0.4	1.8
12	DET	B.Molina	0.6	J.LaRue	1.0	1.6
13	LAD	H.Blanco	0.0	M.Redmond	1.3	1.3
14	SEA	J.Lopez	1.5	R.Machado	(0.2)	1.3
15	ATL	J.Girardi	0.9	H.Ortiz	0.1	1.0
16	NYB	M.Matheny	(0.4)	B.Davis	1.3	0.9
17	BOS	B.Ausmus	0.0	E.Marrero	0.8	0.8
18	CLE	G.Myers	0.8	G.Bennett	0.0	0.8
19	MIL	C.Krueter	1.2	M.Difelice	(0.4)	0.8
20	MIA	D.Miller	1.5	J.Flaherty	(0.9)	0.6
21	BRK	M.LeCroy	0.6	J.Paul	(0.1)	0.5
22	PIT	D.Fletcher	0.0	B.Petrick	(0.1)	(0.1)
23	COL	J.Kendall	0.1	J.Estrada	(0.8)	(0.7)
24	ARZ	M.Barrett	(1.2)	B.Mayne	(0.3)	(1.5)

The top two CATCHING teams both reside in the Expansion League's Continental Division.  Of course, as of this writing, the top catchers on both teams are both on the Disabled List.  Paul LoDuca to miss 14 days for the Minnesota Millers, while Ivan Rodriguez will miss 59 days for the Baltimore Stouts.  I-Rod is actually the highest WAR rated catcher for 2001, but doesn't help much when he's sidelined by injury.  The bottom three teams, Pittsburgh, Colorado and Arizona, all grade out with negative WAR ratings, putting them in a hole to start the ranking process.  Let's see if they can make it up as we head to the infield rankings.

INFIELD

RANK	TEAM	1B		2B		SS		3B		WAR
1	MIA	E.Martinez	4.8	R.Alomar	7.3	R.Aurilia	6.7	S.Halter	3.3	22.1
2	BAL	T.Helton	7.8	F.Vina	2.5	A.Rodriguez	8.3	D.Young	0.9	19.5
3	NYR	M.Sweeney	4.6	B.Boone	8.8	O.Vizquel	(0.2)	S.Rolen	5.5	18.7
4	BOS	R.Klesko	4.6	T.Walker	1.4	R.Gutierrez	2.3	E.Chavez	6.0	14.3
5	LAD	J.Giambi	9.1	M.Loretta	0.4	R.Sanchez	3.4	J.McEwing	1.4	14.3
6	MIL	C.Delgado	4.5	M.Anderson	2.9	J.Rollins	2.4	J.Cirillo	4.4	14.2
7	SEA	J.Olerud	5.2	A.Kennedy	1.5	J.Lugo	1.3	C.Jones	5.9	13.9
8	OAK	T.Martinez	2.2	D.Jackson	0.7	D.Eckstein	4.2	C.Koskie	6.3	13.4
9	MIN	F.McGriff	3.7	A.Soriano	0.0	D.Jeter	5.2	A.Ramirez	4.1	13.0
10	COL	J.Thome	5.6	D.Easley	2.7	A.Gonzalez	1.9	M.Lowell	2.7	12.9
11	DET	D.Lee	2.1	L.Castillo	1.5	C.Guzman	4.8	P.Polanco	4.4	12.8
12	ARZ	R.Palmiero	4.7	J.Kent	5.2	N.Garciaparra	0.4	T.Bautista	2.1	12.4
13	TRI	J.Bagwell	5.8	Q.Veras	0.9	O.Cabrera	3.5	A.Beltre	0.8	11.0
14	PIT	D.Segui	2.1	J.Vidro	2.2	B.Larkin	0.5	P.Nevin	5.8	10.6
15	SF	J.Vander Wal	0.6	F.Menchino	3.3	R.Furcal	0.2	T.Glaus	5.2	9.3
16	HOU	P.Konerko	2.3	M.Gurdzlanek	1.5	C.Guillen	3.3	A.Boone	1.7	8.8
17	SD	R.Sexson	2.8	R.Durham	4.3	R.Ordonez	(0.1)	M.Williams	1.0	8.0
18	SEN	B.Daubach	2.1	R.Belliard	3.5	A.Cora	(0.5)	K.Millar	2.8	7.9
19	NYB	S.Casey	1.0	M.Giles	0.6	M.Tejada	4.2	B.Mueller	1.8	7.6
20	STL	E.Karros	(1.1)	C.Biggio	3.2	B.Gil	1.4	J.Valentin	3.0	6.5
21	ATL	D.Mientkewicz	2.8	E.Young	1.2	A.Nunez	0.9	V.Castilla	1.3	6.2
22	BRK	JT.Snow	0.9	P.Reese	(0.2)	N.Perez	1.2	R.Ventura	2.5	4.4
23	CIN	R.Simon	0.9	L.Alicea	0.3	D.Jimenez	0.8	J.Randa	1.2	3.2
24	CLE	H.Perry	0.4	E.Alfonso	1.5	J.Wilson	0.1	S.Hillebrand	0.4	2.4

The Miami Panthers find their way to the top of the INFIELD rankings.  Rich Aurilia had his career year in 2001, while Roberto Alomar was, well, Roberto Alomar.  It would be the final All-Star season of his Hall-of-Fame career.  Baltimore follows up their top ranking at catcher with the second place spot in the infield behind the years of reigning Expansion MVP Todd Helton and newly acquired SS Alex Rodriguez.  The New York Rippers rank third in both catching and infield WAR.  The big bat for them is the career year of 2B Brett Boone.  The Continental Division of the Expansion League boasts three of the top six infield lineups and four of the top nine.  The bottom two teams in the rankings, Cincinnati and Cleveland, both reside the the Classic Rust Belt Division.

OUTFIELD

RANK	TEAM	CF		OF		OF		WAR
1	TRI	C.Everett	1.0	B.Bonds	11.9	M.Ordonez	3.4	16.3
2	SF	M.Cameron	5.9	T.Nixon	3.7	B.Giles	5.3	14.9
3	MIA	T.Long	2.0	C.Richard	2.1	S.Sosa	10.3	14.4
4	HOU	P.Wilson	2.8	B.Higginson	3.4	L.Gonzalez	7.9	14.1
5	SEA	K.GriffeyJr	1.9	I.Suzuki	7.7	J.Gonzalez	4.4	14.0
6	SEN	J.Edmonds	5.8	JD.Drew	5.5	T.Shinjo	1.8	13.1
7	MIN	J.Pierre	3.1	A.Pujols	6.6	J.Burnitz	2.7	12.4
8	LAD	C.Beltran	6.4	J.Damon	2.4	M.Kotsay	3.5	12.3
9	ATL	G.Kapler	1.3	L. Berkman	6.5	G.Sheffield	4.4	12.2
10	BAL	J.Cruz	2.2	L.Walker	7.8	R.White	2.1	12.1
11	NYR	D.Bautista	0.7	B.Abreu	5.2	V.Guerrero	4.9	10.8
12	COL	D.Erstad	2.9	M.Ramirez	5.2	C.Lee	1.5	9.6
13	BRK	T.Hunter	4.7	F.Catalanato	4.2	A.Ochoa	0.4	9.3
14	PIT	B.Williams	5.2	E.Burks	3.0	W.Magee	1.0	9.2
15	OAK	R.Winn	0.7	C.Floyd	6.6	M.Stairs	1.5	8.8
16	DET	A.Jones	4.9	J.Jones	1.3	A.Dunn	2.1	8.3
17	SD	J.Dye	2.6	J.Conine	2.9	M.Cordova	2.6	8.1
18	CIN	D.Rolls	0.2	S.Green	6.9	J.Cabrera	0.8	7.9
19	ARZ	G.Anderson	2.7	S.Stewart	3.9	M.Quinn	0.9	7.5
20	BOS	C.Singleton	2.2	M.Alou	2.9	G.Jenkins	1.3	6.4
21	MIL	D.Glanville	2.1	D.White	0.8	M.Lawton	2.6	5.5
22	STL	R.Cedeno	0.8	G.Matthews	0.6	G.Vaughn	2.1	3.5
23	CLE	R.Hidalgo	1.9	J.Guillen	0.7	V.Wells	0.7	3.3
24	NYB	M.Bradley	(0.5)	J.Liefer	0.1	L.Matos	0.5	0.1

Two of the top three OUTFIELDS are basically one man shows.  The Washington Tribe sit atop the OF rankings based on Barry Bond's 11.9 WAR.  Miami, who was first in the IF category, rank third here almost solely due to Sammy Sosa and his 10.3 WAR.  Slotted in between the two is the San Fran Quakers who boast an all-around trio of Mike Cameron, Trot Nixon and Brian Giles.  Cameron actually ranks second among CF with a 5.9 WAR rating.  The 4th placed Houston Buffaloes are led by Luis Gonzalez's career year in 2001.  The 5th and 6th place teams are paced by rookies, Seattle by Ichiro Suzuki and Minnesota by Albert Pujols.  Should be interesting to see them battle for ROY this year.  Bringing up the rear in the OF standings is the New York Bombers, while Cleveland comes home in 23rd after their last place ranking in the IF.

BENCH

RANK	TEAM	CF		OF		OF		WAR
1	COL	D.Bell	3.3	B.Jordan	4.3	J.Giambi	0.9	8.5
2	HOU	D.Relaford	2.2	R.Sanders	3.2	A.Rios	1.3	6.7
3	SEA	T.Perez	1.1	S.Javier	2.8	S.Spencer	2.1	6.0
4	DET	C.Counsell	1.7	M.Darr	1.2	J.Macias	3.0	5.9
5	LAD	M.Mora	2.5	B.Grieve	1.4	J.Uribe	1.5	5.4
6	OAK	M.McLemore	3.5	R.Gant	0.4	E.Renteria	1.5	5.4
7	BAL	T.Graffanino	1.3	T.HWorth	1.4	R.Fick	2.4	5.1
8	MIN	H.Bush	1.2	T.Salmon	1.2	R.Mondesi	2.3	4.7
9	NYR	S.Dunston	1.5	M.Grace	2.4	B.Hunter	0.6	4.5
10	TRI	R.Clayton	1.6	C.Wilson	1.1	R.Johnson	1.6	4.3
11	ATL	K.Robinson	1.3	T.Womack	1.4	J.Offerman	1.5	4.2
12	MIL	R.Velarde	1.9	M.Tucker	1.1	B.Abernathy	1.2	4.2
13	BOS	J.Hernandez	1.8	R.Lankford	1.1	J.Hairston	0.8	3.7
14	SD	S.Brosius	2.1	R.Sierra	1.0	M.Young	0.5	3.6
15	ARZ	E.Durazo	1.2	C.Paquette	0.7	BJ Surhoff	0.6	2.5
16	PIT	C.Stynes	1.1	R.Henderson	0.5	J.Hammonds	0.7	2.3
17	BRK	P.O'Neill	0.5	K.Lofton	1.9	J.Encarnacion	(0.4)	2.0
18	SF	M.Bordick	0.6	S.Cox	0.4	P.Burrell	1.0	2.0
19	MIA	T.Lee	1.1	C.Curtis	0.3	D.Bichette	0.5	1.9
20	SEN	C.Izturis	0.3	D.Justice	0.5	B.Fullmer	1.1	1.9
21	STL	F.Lopez	0.6	T.Raines	0.6	J.Reboulet	0.4	1.6
22	CLE	M.DeRosa	0.9	O.Saenz	0.0	B.Roberts	(0.3)	0.6
23	CIN	D.Hocking	0.2	F.Thomas	0.0	G.Colbrunn	0.3	0.5
24	NYB	A.Huff	(0.8)	L.Collier	0.4	R.Martinez	0.1	(0.3)

In the BENCH category, I tried to pick one IF player, one OF player and then the best remaining player with the highest WAR on the team.  Some teams, like Colorado and Houston at the top of the rankings, and Minnesota in the 8th spot, have starter quality players in reserve roles.  Other teams have more platoon type players who will definitely fill a role on the roster.  Problem with these rankings here is a guy like Tim Raines, who is an unlimited "B" durable player who has an .890 OPS, only grades out at 0.6 WAR because he only had 89 ABs on the year in 2001.  Kenny Lofton is technically three times better with his 1.9 WAR rating, but that is more of the fact he had 517 ABs while only carrying a .721 OPS.  This system isn't perfect.  We're just trying to have some fun here!

OVERALL BATTING

RANK	TEAM	C	IF	OF	BN	oWAR
1	BAL	6.0	19.5	12.1	5.1	42.7
2	MIA	0.6	22.1	14.4	1.9	39.0
3	NYR	4.0	18.7	10.8	4.5	38.0
4	MIN	5.3	13.0	12.4	4.7	35.4
5	SEA	1.3	13.9	14.0	6.0	35.2
6	TRI	2.5	11.0	16.3	4.3	34.1
7	LAD	1.3	14.3	12.3	5.4	33.3
8	HOU	3.0	8.8	14.1	6.7	32.6
9	OAK	2.9	13.4	8.8	5.4	30.5
10	COL	(0.7)	12.9	9.6	8.5	30.3
11	SF	3.0	9.3	14.9	2.0	29.2
12	DET	1.6	12.8	8.3	5.9	28.6
13	BOS	0.8	14.3	6.4	3.7	25.2
14	MIL	0.8	14.2	5.5	4.2	24.7
15	SEN	1.8	7.9	13.1	1.9	24.7
16	ATL	1.0	6.2	12.2	4.2	23.6
17	SD	3.5	8.0	8.1	3.6	23.2
18	PIT	(0.1)	10.6	9.2	2.3	22.0
19	ARZ	(1.5)	12.4	7.5	2.5	20.9
20	BRK	0.5	4.4	9.3	2.0	16.2
21	CIN	2.9	3.2	7.9	0.5	14.5
22	STL	2.5	6.5	3.5	1.6	14.1
23	NYB	0.9	7.6	0.1	(0.3)	8.3
24	CLE	0.8	2.4	3.3	0.6	7.1

So Baltimore grades out as the top offensive team in our rankings, the only team to crack the 40 point WAR barrier.  A lineup that features I-Rod (when healthy), Helton, A-Rod and Larry Walker figures to be pretty explosive.  Miami overcomes their poor showing in both the catching and bench categories to finish up in 2nd place.  Surprisingly, the Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers grade out at the worst offensive unit, scoring only 7.1 WAR points across all four categories.

STARTING PITCHING

RANK	TEAM	SP1		SP2		SP3
1	MIN	J.Burkett	4.8	R.Ortiz	4.2	W.Miller	5.3
2	NYR	R.Johnson	10.0	J.Lieber	3.9	F.Garcia	4.2
3	SF	M.Mussina	7.1	C.Maduro	1.6	E.Milton	3.6
4	OAK	K.Millwood	0.6	B.Radke	4.5	J.Vazquez	5.7
5	COL	G.Maddux	5.1	D.Kile	4.8	K.Appier	3.5
6	DET	R.Clemens	5.6	H.Nomo	3.2	B.Penny	2.7
7	HOU	J.Mays	6.7	CC.Sabathia	2.9	J.Thomson	2.2
8	BOS	J.Washburn	3.8	T.Glavine	3.6	T.Hudson	4.5
9	SEA	M.Buerhle	5.9	K.Wood	3.3	C.Carpenter	3.2
10	BAL	C. Park	4.1	K.Brown	3.1	R.Oswalt	4.7
11	ATL	C.Schilling	8.8	S.Reynolds	2.8	E.Hiljus	1.3
12	SEN	B.Zito	4.5	J.Weaver	3.3	S.Schoenwies	1.2
13	SD	J.Bere	1.7	AJ.Burnett	1.7	E.Dessens	4.2
14	LAD	P.Martinez	5.1	C.Finley	(0.1)	S.Parris	0.8
15	CIN	W.Williams	2.8	J.Marquis	0.9	C.Durbin	1.3
16	CLE	A.Pettitte	3.4	B.Colon	4.5	M.Hampton	0.3
17	NYB	B.Kim	3.1	J.Schmidt	2.1	K.Wells	0.6
18	MIA	O.Hernandez	1.5	D.Williams	2.3	T.Ritchie	2.0
19	PIT	R.Wolf	1.8	S.Estes	1.7	A.Lopez	1.1
20	TRI	R.Person	1.8	J.Haynes	0.9	S.Chacon	1.8
21	STL	A.Leiter	3.0	L.Hernandez	(0.8)	S.Trachsel	1.1
22	ARZ	D.Wells	1.3	K.Rogers	0.2	R.Ortiz	2.3
23	BRK	M.Redman	0.5	J.Halama	(0.9)	D.Davis	3.3
24	MIL	M.Clement	(0.1)	K.Jarvis	1.5	T.Lilly	0.0
RANK	TEAM	SP4		SP5		WAR
1	MIN	M.Morris	4.1	M.Mulder	5.6	24.0
2	NYR	K.Rueter	1.3	D.Cone	1.9	21.3
3	SF	F.Castillo	2.3	S.Sparks	4.4	19.0
4	OAK	C.Lidle	3.4	M.Batista	2.9	17.1
5	COL	T.Adams	2.0	P.Hentgen	1.5	16.9
6	DET	T.Armas	3.0	I.Valdez	2.2	16.7
7	HOU	J.Johnson	1.4	R.Halladay	3.0	16.2
8	BOS	J.Moyer	3.4	B.Sheets	0.7	16.0
9	SEA	B.Duckworth	1.1	A.Sele	2.5	16.0
10	BAL	R.Reed	2.9	B.Lyon	1.0	15.8
11	ATL	N.Figueroa	0.8	J.Piniero	1.5	15.2
12	SEN	B.Lawrence	1.8	B.Stein	1.4	12.2
13	SD	J.Kennedy	1.7	B.Tollberg	1.8	11.1
14	LAD	J.Suppan	2.5	J.Garland	1.6	9.9
15	CIN	P.Astacio	1.9	R.Helling	2.0	8.9
16	CLE	C.Mickalak	1.6	A.Telemaco	(0.9)	8.9
17	NYB	D.Neagle	1.2	E.Loaiza	1.4	8.4
18	MIA	C.Smith	0.4	B.Smith	0.7	6.9
19	PIT	D.Coggin	0.9	L.Davis	1.4	6.9
20	TRI	S.Ponson	0.6	P.Rapp	1.7	6.8
21	STL	A.Eaton	1.1	C.Reitsma	0.5	4.9
22	ARZ	R.Dempster	0.0	O.Daal	0.4	4.2
23	BRK	D.Burba	(0.9)	J.Lima	(0.2)	1.8
24	MIL	R.Quevedo	0.6	O.Oliveres	(1.6)	0.4

The STARTING PITCHING is where it got a little tough to project.  Most teams have two or three pretty identifiable guys in their rotation.  I just did my best to project the top-5 from each team.  Again, this isn't super scientific.  One thing for sure is that Walt's Minnesota staff is one for the ages.  All five starters with a WAR rating above 4.1.  All five starters JAM rated.  It will be tough sledding each and every time out against the Millers in 2001.  Several really good staffs at the top of the rankings.  I was a little surprised that Boston's staff of Washburn, Glavine, Hudson, Moyer and Sheets only ranked out as 8th best.  They actually rank 2nd in their division behind Bill's New York Rippers, who are led by Randy Johnson's 10.0 WAR rating.  The Big Unit actually rates out higher by himself than the bottom 11 rotations on the list.  Wow!  Of course Trader Bill will probably move him before the All-Star break!  The bottom few teams are either searching for quality pitching, or victimized by key starters having down years.

RELIEF PITCHING

RANK	TEAM	REL1		REL2		REL3
1	MIN	M.DeJean	1.5	P.Quantrill	2.4	R.Rincon	1.6
2	ARZ	P.Abbott	1.4	S.Macrae	0.4	T.Sturtze	3.3
3	HOU	R.Arrojo	2.4	R.Mendoza	2.0	R.Saenz	0.8
4	BRK	J.Powell	1.1	B.Prinz	1.2	D.Patterson	1.7
5	TRI	O.Dotel	3.0	S.Sullivan	2.2	S.Stewart	0.8
6	BAL	J.Brower	1.8	P.Wilson	0.6	F.Rodriguez	3.3
7	SEA	V.Nunez	1.7	P.Byrd	0.0	G.Mota	(0.1)
8	OAK	K.Escobar	2.9	J.Cressand	0.8	N.Cruz	0.7
9	NYR	B.File	1.7	A.Levine	2.3	J.Rocker	0.3
10	ATL	B.Witt	0.5	V.Santos	1.4	J.Jimenez	1.0
11	SD	T.Wakefield	2.7	T.Gordon	0.7	J.Speier	0.9
12	SF	B.Weber	1.1	W.Roberts	0.6	R.Choate	0.8
13	DET	P.Shuet	0.8	M.Mathews	1.8	G.Swindell	0.6
14	SEN	J.Eischen	0.1	J.Grimsley	1.9	D.Reyes	0.0
15	PIT	G.Carrara	1.7	M.Morgan	0.3	J.Manzanillo	1.5
16	BOS	D.Baez	1.0	K.Farnsworth	2.1	R.Garces	1.1
17	NYB	E.Gagne	0.3	J.Towers	1.5	B.Looper	0.9
18	MIA	B.Chen	(0.4)	K.Davis	0.7	D.Lee	0.7
19	COL	C.Fossum	0.4	V.Zambrano	1.0	M.Herges	1.8
20	MIL	D.Wright	0.1	M.Buddie	0.3	A.Fultz	(0.3)
21	STL	JC.Romero	(0.6)	L.Pote	1.0	M.Wohlers	0.2
22	CIN	D.Reichert	0.1	M.Wise	0.7	R.Franklin	0.7
23	LAD	J.Santana	0.2	D.Marte	0.1	J.Tam	(0.1)
24	CLE	SW.Kim	0.1	J.Paniagua	(0.4)	T.Redding	(0.1)
RANK	TEAM	REL4		REL5		REL6		WAR
1	MIN	D.Weathers	2.6	J.Shaw	0.9	K.Foulke	3.7	12.7
2	ARZ	M.Stanton	2.7	S.Strickland	1.2	M.Rivera	3.3	12.3
3	HOU	A.Rhodes	2.5	R.Beck	0.9	P.Borbon	0.9	9.5
4	BRK	J.Riedling	1.3	B.Groom	1.1	J.Isringhausen	1.9	8.3
5	TRI	C.Bailey	1.4	A.Almanza	(0.2)	D.Plesac	1.1	8.3
6	BAL	R.Rodriguez	0.0	J.Nelson	1.4	K.Sasaki	1.1	8.2
7	SEA	T.Percival	1.9	C.Fox	2.3	B.Wagner	2.4	8.2
8	OAK	U.Urbina	1.2	M.Magnante	1.0	J.Mesa	1.0	7.6
9	NYR	J.Franco	0.3	J.Acevedo	0.1	B.Wickman	2.8	7.5
10	ATL	T.Phelps	0.8	S.Kline	2.7	J.Fassero	0.9	7.3
11	SD	J.Riggan	0.8	J.Christiansen	0.8	T.Hoffman	1.2	7.1
12	SF	S.Karsay	2.4	J.Moreno	0.6	R.Nen	1.6	7.1
13	DET	M.Lincoln	0.8	E.Guardardo	1.3	C.Bradford	1.0	6.3
14	SEN	D.Lowe	2.2	A.Alfonseca	0.9	M.Williams	1.1	6.2
15	PIT	M.Myers	1.3	G.Lloyd	0.5	B.Howry	0.6	5.9
16	BOS	K.Ligtenberg	0.7	L.Hackman	0.0	C.Politte	0.4	5.3
17	NYB	R.King	1.0	S.Hasegawa	0.5	A.Benitez	1.0	5.2
18	MIA	J.Mecir	1.2	T.Van Poppel	2.0	C.Leskanic	0.9	5.1
19	COL	J.Colome	0.8	H.Carrasco	0.3	D.Creek	0.3	4.6
20	MIL	J.Zimmerman	3.4	BJ.Ryan	(0.2)	D.Graves	0.9	4.2
21	STL	J.Witasick	0.6	M.Remlinger	1.7	B.Koch	0.1	3.0
22	CIN	S.Saurbeck	(0.4)	M.Timlin	0.3	D.Miceli	(0.5)	0.9
23	LAD	J.Smoltz	0.8	M.Anderson	(0.1)	T.Jones	0.0	0.9
24	CLE	B.Tomko	(0.5)	J.Westbrook	0.0	R.Hernandez	0.8	(0.1)

Minnesota follows up their top ranking in the starting pitching category with the top ranking in the RELIEF PITCHING category as well.  Led by Keith Foulke, who's 3.7 WAR rating is the highest of any reliever.  The reliever WAR ratings were a little hard to follow.  Some guys graded out really high who didn't really seem like they should have, while others who on paper seemed to have very good years just didn't score very highly.  I guess it has a lot to do with innings pitched.  I dunno.  Regardless, for our purposes in this exercise, two teams have superior bullpens - Minnesota and Arizona, the only two teams to grade in double-digits as a bullpen.  Arizona, of course, is led by Mariano Rivera so they can't help to be good.  Cleveland actually graded out with a negative number of their six guys combined.

OVERALL PITCHING

RANK	TEAM	SP	REL	pWAR
1	MIN	24.0	12.7	36.7
2	NYR	21.3	7.5	28.8
3	SF	19.0	7.1	26.1
4	HOU	16.2	9.5	25.7
5	OAK	17.1	7.6	24.7
6	SEA	16.0	8.2	24.2
7	BAL	15.8	8.2	24.0
8	DET	16.7	6.3	23.0
9	ATL	15.2	7.3	22.5
10	COL	16.9	4.6	21.5
11	BOS	16.0	5.3	21.3
12	SEN	12.2	6.2	18.4
13	SD	11.1	7.1	18.2
14	ARZ	4.2	12.3	16.5
15	TRI	6.8	8.3	15.1
16	NYB	8.4	5.2	13.6
17	PIT	6.9	5.9	12.8
18	MIA	6.9	5.1	12.0
19	LAD	9.9	0.9	10.8
20	BRK	1.8	8.3	10.1
21	CIN	8.9	0.9	9.8
22	CLE	8.9	(0.1)	8.8
23	STL	4.9	3.0	7.9
24	MIL	0.4	4.2	4.6

Obviously, Minnesota is going to top the overall pitching rankings with top finishes in both starting and relief pitching.  Randy Johnson leads the Rippers into the 2nd spot.  A couple of 2000 playoff teams in Cleveland and St. Louis come home in 22nd and 23rd respectively.

Ok, so if you've read down this far, you're probably wondering where your team graded out.  So without further adieu, here are the initial overall MBL POWER RANKINGS for the 2001 season.

OVERALL RANKINGS

RANK	TEAM	C	IF	OF	BN	oWAR	TEAM	SP	REL	pWAR	TOTAL
1	MIN	5.3	13.0	12.4	4.7	35.4	MIN	24.0	12.7	36.7	72.1
2	NYR	4.0	18.7	10.8	4.5	38.0	NYR	21.3	7.5	28.8	66.8
3	BAL	6.0	19.5	12.1	5.1	42.7	BAL	15.8	8.2	24.0	66.7
4	SEA	1.3	13.9	14.0	6.0	35.2	SEA	16.0	8.2	24.2	59.4
5	HOU	3.0	8.8	14.1	6.7	32.6	HOU	16.2	9.5	25.7	58.3
6	SF	3.0	9.3	14.9	2.0	29.2	SF	19.0	7.1	26.1	55.3
7	OAK	2.9	13.4	8.8	5.4	30.5	OAK	17.1	7.6	24.7	55.2
8	COL	(0.7)	12.9	9.6	8.5	30.3	COL	16.9	4.6	21.5	51.8
9	DET	1.6	12.8	8.3	5.9	28.6	DET	16.7	6.3	23.0	51.6
10	MIA	0.6	22.1	14.4	1.9	39.0	MIA	6.9	5.1	12.0	51.0
11	TRI	2.5	11.0	16.3	4.3	34.1	TRI	6.8	8.3	15.1	49.2
12	BOS	0.8	14.3	6.4	3.7	25.2	BOS	16.0	5.3	21.3	46.5
13	ATL	1.0	6.2	12.2	4.2	23.6	ATL	15.2	7.3	22.5	46.1
14	LAD	1.3	14.3	12.3	5.4	33.3	LAD	9.9	0.9	10.8	44.1
15	SEN	1.8	7.9	13.1	1.9	24.7	SEN	12.2	6.2	18.4	43.1
16	SD	3.5	8.0	8.1	3.6	23.2	SD	11.1	7.1	18.2	41.4
17	ARZ	(1.5)	12.4	7.5	2.5	20.9	ARZ	4.2	12.3	16.5	37.4
18	PIT	(0.1)	10.6	9.2	2.3	22.0	PIT	6.9	5.9	12.8	34.8
19	MIL	0.8	14.2	5.5	4.2	24.7	MIL	0.4	4.2	4.6	29.3
20	BRK	0.5	4.4	9.3	2.0	16.2	BRK	1.8	8.3	10.1	26.3
21	CIN	2.9	3.2	7.9	0.5	14.5	CIN	8.9	0.9	9.8	24.3
22	STL	2.5	6.5	3.5	1.6	14.1	STL	4.9	3.0	7.9	22.0
23	NYB	0.9	7.6	0.1	(0.3)	8.3	NYB	8.4	5.2	13.6	21.9
24	CLE	0.8	2.4	3.3	0.6	7.1	CLE	8.9	(0.1)	8.8	15.9

RANK	TEAM	oWAR	oRANK	pWAR	pRANK	TOTAL
1	MIN	35.4	4	36.7	1	72.1
2	NYR	38.0	3	28.8	2	66.8
3	BAL	42.7	1	24.0	7	66.7
4	SEA	35.2	5	24.2	6	59.4
5	HOU	32.6	8	25.7	4	58.3
6	SF	29.2	11	26.1	3	55.3
7	OAK	30.5	9	24.7	5	55.2
8	COL	30.3	10	21.5	10	51.8
9	DET	28.6	12	23.0	8	51.6
10	MIA	39.0	2	12.0	18	51.0
11	TRI	34.1	6	15.1	15	49.2
12	BOS	25.2	13	21.3	11	46.5
13	ATL	23.6	16	22.5	9	46.1
14	LAD	33.3	7	10.8	19	44.1
15	SEN	24.7	15	18.4	12	43.1
16	SD	23.2	17	18.2	13	41.4
17	ARZ	20.9	19	16.5	14	37.4
18	PIT	22.0	18	12.8	17	34.8
19	MIL	24.7	14	4.6	24	29.3
20	BRK	16.2	20	10.1	20	26.3
21	CIN	14.5	21	9.8	21	24.3
22	STL	14.1	22	7.9	23	22.0
23	NYB	8.3	23	13.6	16	21.9
24	CLE	7.1	24	8.8	22	15.9

A lot of numbers.  And what do they really mean?  Who knows.  The top five teams all grade out in the top-8 in both the offensive and pitching categories.  Brooklyn, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Cleveland all graded out 20th or below in both the offensive and pitching categories.  Do these rankings really mean anything?  Probably not.  Can't see Cleveland being the worst team in the whole league.  Boston ranks out right in the middle of the pack at 12th, but they are sure to be better than that ranking.  Colorado, the defending champs, finished 10th in both offense and pitching.  Can they outperform those rankings?  Probably.  It's hard to believe that Miami's 2nd ranked offense can't carry them to a better standing than 10th.  Will Minnesota be good.  Absolutely.  Are they the best team in the league?  Only time will tell.  Again, these rankings aren't overly scientific and are based largely on my projections for lineups and staffs.  Hobb's Ripper squad ranks out as the 2nd best team, but he'll probably trade half of his roster by the All-Star break.  Will those deals improve his standing?  Who knows.  Anything can happen.  Let the games begin!!!