TRADES - Cleveland Makes a Pair of Deals

Cleveland manager Brian Feig was busy again yesterday, making a pair of deals in an attempt to make the Rock 'N Rollers relevant in the Classic League's Rust Belt Division.  The first deal of the day was made with the Minnesota Millers

CLEVELAND sends Paul Lo Duca and their 2001 2nd round pick to MINNESOTA for Jason Kendall and Roberto Hernandez

Before we dissect that deal, let's take a look at the second swap first.

CLEVELAND sends Jon Garland to ARIZONA for Mark Gardner

This deal, featuring a one-for-one swap of starting pitchers, is an easy one to analyze.  Cleveland, as noted in an earlier edition of the TRADE ANALYZER, is in win now mode.  This deal exemplifies that approach.  Mark Gardner comes into the fold.  In the year 2000, he was in the 12th year of a 13 year career, and he had a pretty decent year.  Pitching for the San Francisco Giants, he started 20 games, going 11-7 with a 4.05 ERA.  But he's pretty much done after this year.  In 2001, his ERA balloons to 5.40 and he's out of baseball by 2002.  He comes to Cleveland having gone 4-1 with a 4.40 ERA in eight starts for Arizona.  He will slot in behind Bartolo Colon, Mike Hampton and Freddy Garcia at the back end of the Rock 'N Rollers rotation.


Gardner's Career Statistics:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gardnma01.shtml
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Jon Garland goes to Arizona, and he offers little to nothing this season.  The year 2000 was his rookie season in the big leagues, one which saw him start 13 games for the Chicago White Sox, compiling a 4-8 record with a 6.46 ERA.  He goes to an Apaches squad which will want nothing to do with that type of production.  But the acquisition of Garland has nothing to do with what he can do this season.  Tom made this deal for what Garland can do for the Apaches in the future.  Beginning in 2002, Garland begins a stretch where he starts at least 32 games for nine consecutive seasons.  And while he's no Johan Santana, he no slouch either.  He won double digit games in each of those years.  He was also very consistent.  His highest ERA in that nine year stretch was 4.90.  His average season over the stretch was a record of 13-11 with a 4.25 ERA.

Garland's Career Statistics:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garlajo01.shtml
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SUMMARY DEAL #2
This deal is the perfect example of one team looking at the year at hand, with the other participant looking towards the future.  In this case, it's an easy one to evaluate for our purposes.  Deals like this go down all the time in real life.  One team trading away a proven commodity to help them win in the current year for unknown prospects with future potential.  The difference here is that we already know the potential of the return player, in this instance Jon Garland.  And while I have no issues with anybody trying to make a push to win games now, this particular deal is a little bit unbalanced for my taste.  I'll explain.

While Gardner will undoubtedly help Brian improve in 2000, he's basically just dealt a pitcher in Garland who is good for 300 plus starts over the course of the next decade.  Gardner has probably 25 starts left, at best, in his MBL career.  If we were talking about somebody like Rick Ankiel, who is exceptional in 2000 before forgetting how to pitch, or even Robert Person, who is very good in 2000 and has a little something left in 2001, then the deal would make a little more sense.  Even somebody like Mike Sirotka maybe.  I just don't think the addition of a one year back-end guy like Gardner is worth the future success of a guy like Garland.  So while in 2000 the deal clearly favors Brian and the Rock 'N Rollers, the Apaches are the big winners of this deal in the long run.

**As a side note, Brian has made it known that he once had a sales rep named Jon Garland that he could not stand.  I knew a guy once named Mark Gardner and he was a really nice guy.  So in the game of life, Brian comes out on top!**

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Now lets's revert our attention back to the first deal of the day, one which saw a couple of catchers exchange teams.

This is another example of Brian trying to win today, and kudos to him for that.  He's trying to put the most competitive team he can on the field that he can.  This deal accomplishes that.  Gone is a draft pick and Paul Lo Duca, who has virtually no value in the current season.  Into the fold is Jason Kendall, who was an All-Star MLB backstop in the year 2000, a season which saw him hit .320 with a .412 OBP and 22 stolen bases from his catcher position.  He's without a doubt one of the top catchers in our current season.  His addition to the lineup, along with recent acquisition Edgardo Alfonzo, give the Rock 'N Rollers one of the best, if not THE best, batting orders in the entire MBL.  Those two join Jason Giambi, Richard Hidalgo, Rich Aurilia, David Justice, Terrance Long and Raul Mondesi in the lineup.  That's pretty scary.

Let's not paint this as Kendall being a one year acquisition though.  That's absolutely not the case.  Kendall is very good for the next several years.  He catches at least 134 games in each of the next nine seasons.  And while his offense drops off in the later half of those years, his next six years see him post a triple slash of .293/.366/.394.  His 2003 and 2004 seasons are exceptionally good.  He's never been a source of power, and he struggles to throw out opposing base-runners, but he's one of the few catchers who excels on the base-paths, providing stolen bases from a position which normally does not.

Kendall comes to Cleveland batting .333/.435/.444 triple slash line.
Jason Kendall's Career Statistics:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendaja01.shtml
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Paul LoDuca played in only 34 games in the year 2000, but he was targeted by Walt and the Millers not for what he does now, but what he does in the future.  LoDuca explodes onto the scene in 2001, batting .320 with 25 homers in 125 games.  His OPS of .917 was the best of his career by far.  He goes on, following the 2001 season, to catch at least 119 games for the next six seasons.  He's was an All-Star for three different teams in four consecutive seasons between 2003-2006.  When comparing him and Kendall during those four years, they are quite comparable.  Kendall plays in 590 games during the four year span, batting .303 with a .745 OPS.  LoDuca plays 546 games, hitting .290 with a .742 OPS.  Kendall gets on base a little more.  LoDuca provides a little more pop.


Paul Lo Duca's Career Statistics:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loducpa01.shtml
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The other player moving in this deal is Roberto Hernandez.  This is another player who can help Brian and the Rock 'N Rollers in the current season.  Hernandez was 4-7 with a 3.19 ERA with 32 saves for Tampa Bay in 2000.  He has six more productive years, compiling a 3.82 ERA for five different teams between 2001-2006.  His main value in this deal is in the 2000 season though, where he provides a quality arm for the Cleveland bullpen.

He comes to the Rock 'N Rollers having compiled a 2.95 ERA in 21.1 innings for the Millers.
Roberto Hernandez's Career Statistics:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernaro01.shtml
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SUMMARY DEAL #1
Walt looks to be in full rebuild mode with this deal.  He's basically traded away one of his better lineup pieces, as well as a solid bullpen arm, for two future pieces.  And while I have no problem with that strategy, I'm not sure the return for Kendall's current card was enough.  We are playing in the now, and as was seen by Brian's other deal, as well as others, current pieces can pull quite a haul from team's trying to win today.  In Kendall, Walt had arguably the best catcher in the league in 2000.  He trailed only Mike Piazza and Jorge Posada in OPS, and if you factor in his defense and base-running ability, a case can be made he out-values both of them.  Regardless, he's in the top-3, and at a position that very few players standout.  While I like the acquisition of Lo Duca, and what he provides the Miller's in 2001, he's pretty comparable to Kendall in the seasons that follow.  If we consider the Kendall for LoDuca swap as equal, and the Hernandez for a 2nd round pick equal, the deal is pretty even overall.  But I just think Walt could have squeezed a bigger deal out of somebody looking to add Kendall's bat to their 2000 lineup.

Having said that, Walt has his team positioned to be a big mover in 2001.  He's almost certainly going to be adding a superstar player from the draft (Pujols, Ichiro, Sabathia, Oswalt).  And he is now sitting on not only Lo Duca and his breakout season, but also Alfonso Soriano, Juan Pierre and Aubrey Huff.  Not to mention Aramis Ramirez, who will be in his first full season, as well as established regulars Derek Jeter and Jeromy Burnitz.  Matt Morris is also set to join his rotation.  Minnesota will no doubt be much improved in 2001.