2001 PROSPECT WATCH

We will use this space to take a look at some of the "prospects" becoming available in the 2001 MBL Draft.  A few things to consider as we begin.  First, the players are ranked based solely on the overall WAR accumulation for their entire MLB career.  While this may not be the best way to rank the "prospects", it's the way I'm doing it for our purposes here.  These are not my rankings.  This is also not a mock draft, or the way I feel these players should be drafted.  Again, this is a straight ranking based solely on the players career WAR (wins above replacement player) numbers.

So with all that being said, here is the first installment, the top-10 rated overall prospects for the 2001 Millennium League Draft.

1.)  ALBERT PUJOLS - 96.1 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml
Not a whole lot needs to be said about Albert Pujols.  He was hands down the best player of the first decade of the 21st Century.  No dispute.  The numbers do not lie.  Pujols won the NL Rookie-of-the-Year Award in 2001, a year which saw him finish 4th in the MVP balloting.  For the remainder of the decade, he wins three MVP awards, finishes second four other times, and throws a third place finish in there for good measure.  His OPS for the decade was 1.050.  The great thing about Pujols is that he also excels defensively, winning a pair of Gold Glove awards in his career.  Whoever drafts him is getting arguably the best player in the history of the game.


2.)  ICHIRO SUZUKI - 58.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml
The consolation prize for missing out on Pujols will most likely be Ichiro.  In most years, he would be the hands down top pick, but not in 2001.  Regardless, whoever is lucky enough to select the talented Japanese star is in for a long career of production.  Ichiro broke onto the scene in by storm, winning both the AL Rookie-of-the-Year and MVP awards in 2001, a season that saw him lead the league in batting with a .350 mark and in stolen bases with 56.  He's an All-Star in each of his first ten seasons, winning the Gold Glove award every single year from 2001-2010..  He leads the AL in hits seven times during the decade.  His batting average for the decade is .331.  He averages 159 games played as well.  Stick him in RF and forget about him for ten years.

3.)  CC SABATHIA - 53.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml
Our first pitcher to hit the list is talented left-handed starter CC Sabathia.  He's another player who joined the league by storm, going 17-5 in his rookie campaign, finishing second in the Rookie-of-the-Year balloting to Ichiro.  Although Sabathia is good the first five years of his career, he really gets cranking towards the middle of the decade.  For a seven year span between 2006 and 2012, he has a combined ERA of 3.14 in 226 starts.  His ERA+ over than span is 140.  A six time All-Star, he won one Cy Young award and finished 5th or better in the balloting five times.  His career is not Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez good, but he's high quality for a very, very long time.

4.)  ROY OSWALT - 49.9 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oswalro01.shtml
Yet another rookie who took to the league with great aplomb, right-hander Roy Oswalt went 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA in his debut season.  He finished 2nd behind Pujols in the NL ROY vote.  Whereas Sabathia's career really kicks into gear a few years into it, Oswalt's first seven seasons are pretty much his best.  From 2001 to 2007, he has an ERA of 3.07.  In five of those seven seasons, his ERA is 3.01 or less.  And while he never did win a Cy Young award in his career, Oswalt did finish 5th or better five times in that seven year stretch to begin his career.  In 2010, he led the NL in WHIP and had a 2.76 ERA in 32 starts.

5.)  JOSH BECKETT - 35.6 WAR

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckejo02.shtml
If you draft Josh Beckett, you will have to wait for him a year before he helps your team.  He is carded in the 2001 season, but he only had four spot starts.  The big concern for whomever drafts Beckett will be his durability.  He doesn't start 30 games in a year until the 2006 season.  For his career, he's only started 30 or more games four times in his 14 years in the league.  From 2001-2011, he averaged 25 starts with a 3.84 ERA, striking out nearly a batter an inning.  Beckett is a three time All-Star selection.  He finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in his best season of 2007 when he went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA in 30 starts.


6.)  BRIAN ROBERTS - 30.2 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbr01.shtml
The first middle-infielder to hit the list is second-baseman Brian Roberts.  While he's not as sexy as some of the names ahead of him, Roberts has had a very fine career nonetheless.  He's also a guy that if you draft him, you're gonna have to wait for him to become a regular contributor.  His first season as an everyday starter is 2004, a season which saw him lead the AL in doubles with 50.  He also led all of MLB in doubles in 2009 with 56.  In between is basically where you get most all of his production.  From 04-09, Roberts is one of the best 2B in MLB, with a .290 average and .803 OPS.  He also averaged 35 steals per year during that stretch.

7.)  TED LILLY - 29.0 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lillyte01.shtml
Ted Lilly is another guy you will have to wait on for his best years.  While he does pitch beginning in 2001, the bullish left-hander doesn't really come into his own until later in the decade.  From 2001-2006, the two time All-Star averages 26 starts with a 4.51 ERA and 1.369 WHIP.  From 2007-2011, he improves across the board, averaging 32 starts per year with a 3.74 ERA and 1.134 WHIP.  He's not horrible early in his career, but if you have the patience to wait on him, he'll pay you off on down the line.



8.)  VERNON WELLS - 28.5 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml
Vernon Wells is a limited use player in 2001.  He doesn't begin playing full-time until the following season.  From 2002-2011, he's one of the better center-fielders in the game.  During that ten year stretch, he averages 147 games, 34 doubles and 25 homers a season.  The three-time All-Star selection is also an excellent player defensively, winning the Gold Glove award two times.  His 2003 season is especially good as he led all of MLB in hits, led the AL in doubles with 49 and had an OPS of .909.  He's "clutch" rated that season, an "8" base-runner and has "A" range in the field.


9.)  BEN SHEETS - 26.1 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheetbe01.shtml
If not for injuries that plagued his career, Ben Sheets would be ranked much higher on this list.  From 2001-2008, Sheets was an All-Star four times, including his debut season.  He had an incredible season in 2004.  That season saw him compile a 2.70 ERA and a remarkable 0.983 WHIP.  He had 264 Ks in 237 innings.  He also led the league in K/W with a mark of 8.25.  Sheets injured himself in 2005 and carries "F" durablilty for the following two seasons.  He starts 31 games in 2008 with a 3.09 ERA before injuring himself again, costing him the entire 2009 season.



10.)  MICHAEL YOUNG - 24.4 WAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml
The final member of the Top-10 Prospect List is versatile infielder Michael Young.  He begins his career as a second-baseman and spends his first three years at that position.  He switches to shortstop in 2004 and goes to five consecutive All-Star games.  During those years, he compiles a triple slash line of .311/.360/.456, averaging 158 games, 40 doubles and 16 homers.  Only a handful of SS can compare offensively.  Young switches to third-base in 2009 and continures hit.  He is selected to two more All-Star games in the next three years.


There you have it.  The Top-10 "prospects" for the upcoming draft.  All of the above players will be valuable lineup contributors for several seasons.  The top four players on the list are bona fide studs.  Pujols and Ichiro are first-ballot Hall-of-Famers.  Stay tuned to find out who will be players 11-20.