MBL POWER RANKINGS - 1/25/2015

So the games have started and each team in the league has at least a week's worth of games under their belt.  In addition, each team has played every team in their own division at least once.  I figure I would go ahead and try to run the early season numbers and see how the team's are faring in the early going with the first edition of the in-season power rankings.

I'm running the numbers similar to the way I ran them last season.  I basically rank the team's in various offensive, pitching, and fielding categories, put all of the rankings together, then have the computer spit out an overall ranking for each team.  Nothing too earth shattering.  And please keep in mind, this first edition is a very small sample size.  Some teams have only nine games under their belt so far.  This especially screws with the fielding rankings.  I ran the rankings the same as I did last year, but some teams don't have enough counting stats to really make the rankings accurate.  For this reason, fielding is only weighted in the overall rankings half of what batting and pitching is counted.

So with all that said, let's see who graded out the best so far!

RNK	+/-	TEAM	BAT	PIT	FLD	PCT	rDiff	PYTH	xW	xL	LUCK
1	11	Boston Beaneaters	5	1	2	.800	46	.790	12	3	0
2	0	New York Rippers	13	5	4	.667	13	.610	9	6	1
3	0	Baltimore Stouts	4	10	19	.750	19	.646	8	4	1
4	13	Arizona Apaches	1	15	5	.556	0	.500	5	5	1
5	6	Washington Tribe	10	7	15	.733	17	.603	9	6	2
6	(2)	Seattle Lightning	15	3	16	.778	14	.643	6	3	1
7	2	Detroit Buckeyes	2	13	14	.500	9	.564	7	5	(1)
8	(7)	Minnesota Millers	19	6	6	.533	0	.500	8	8	1
9	(1)	Colorado Briar Jumpers	9	11	21	.556	13	.629	6	3	(1)
10	(3)	Oakland Osprey	21	2	22	.444	(3)	.461	4	5	(0)
11	7	Pittsburgh Crawfords	3	14	23	.583	(10)	.437	5	7	2
12	(6)	San Francisco Quakers	23	4	7	.444	1	.513	5	4	(1)
13	1	Los Angeles Diablos	14	12	8	.333	(1)	.493	7	8	(2)
14	10	Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers	7	24	3	.333	(6)	.450	4	5	(1)
15	6	Cincinnati Red Stockings	6	18	18	.556	7	.566	5	4	(0)
16	3	Milwaukee Phantoms	16	19	1	.417	(18)	.362	4	8	1
17	(12)	Houston Buffaloes	8	17	17	.556	3	.533	5	4	0
18	(8)	Miami Panthers	20	8	24	.417	1	.509	6	6	(1)
19	(6)	Atlanta Stonecutters	11	20	9	.417	(7)	.450	5	7	(0)
20	(4)	San Diego Vipers	24	9	13	.333	(12)	.350	3	6	(0)
21	1	St. Louis Sliders	12	23	20	.333	(16)	.358	3	6	(0)
22	(2)	Brooklyn BABums	17	21	10	.267	(31)	.303	5	10	(1)
23	(8)	Washington Senators	18	22	12	.400	(11)	.431	6	9	(0)
24	(1)	New York Bombers	22	16	11	.267	(28)	.300	4	11	(0)

GLOSSARY

RNK - Overall Power Ranking +/- - Difference between this ranking and the team's last ranking BAT - Batting Rank

PIT - Pitching Rank

FLD - Fielding Rank

PCT - Actual Win Percentage rDIFF - Run Differential

PYTH - Expected Win Percentage xW - Expected Wins xL - Expected Losses

LUCK - Difference between actual wins and expected wins

Seeing as this is the first edition of the 2001 In-Season Power Rankings, let me explain what you are looking at in the above table.  The RNK column is the actual power ranking for the individual teams.  Pretty self-explanatory.  This is a combination of  the BAT, PIT and FLD columns.  These three columns represent where each team ranks in each of the individual categories.  So as we see from the table, the Boston Beaneaters are ranked #1 overall in the power rankings.  They are the #5 rated hitting team, the #1 rated pitching team and they come in at #2 defensively.  To come up with these different category rankings, I looked at several different sub-categories within the overall batting, pitching and fielding categories.

PCT is the team's actual win percentage to date.  rDIFF is the team's run differential on the year.  PYTH is the team's expected win percentage based on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem of baseball.  Basically, the formula relates a team's runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record. xW and xL are a team's expected wins and losses based on the PYTH number.  LUCK is the difference between actual wins and expected wins.  A positive number means the team is performing better than expected, while a negative number indicates a team theoretically in under-performing.

As we see from the table, the Washington Tribe and Pittsburgh Crawfords have each won two more games than they were expected to win, i.e. they have been "lucky".  On the other hand the Los Angelas Diablos have been "unlucky" to date, having lost two games that they theoretically should have won.  Basically, even though Washington has gone 11-4 so far through 15 games, the PYTH formula is stating that their actual record should only be 9-6, while LA, instead of 5-10 should be 7-8.  Obviously we're very early on and the PYTH number will change dramatically in the coming weeks as teams get more games under their belts.

Here are a few observations as I look at the rankings:

• Boston Beaneaters obviously didn't grade out well in the preseason rankings, but comes home in the top spot here.  Their pitching will grade out throughout the course of the season higher than the preseason rankings gave them credit for, that's for sure.  They are also the only team in the league to rank in the top-10 in all three categories.
• Top two teams in the rankings both reside in the Classic Division's Metro Division as the New York Rippers come home #2.  If this team can get Randy Johnson in gear, look out.  They still graded out as the fifth best pitching squad despite the Big Unit's struggles.  And they are sure to improve on their offensive numbers as well.  The squad was ranked third offensively in the preseason rankings.
• The Baltimore Stouts have the second best rDIFF in the league thus far.  They're sitting at 9-3 in the early going.  Their ranking is hurt by the fielding numbers, and that is mainly due to the injury to Ivan Rodriguez.  When and if he can get back in the lineup and stay healthy, their fielding ranking will most certainly improve.
• The most surprising team in the rankings, at least when you compare where they were ranked in the preseason, is the Arizona Apaches.  They were ranked 17th in the preseason rankings, but find their way to the 4th spot here. Their high standing is based to their league leading offense to date.  The team ranks only 10th in runs per game, but has the top squad in terms of batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
• Walt's Minnesota Millers have been a bit of a disappointment through their first 15 games, going only 8-7.  They held the top spot in the preseason rankings, but only grade out 8th in the early going.  Their offense just needs to get in gear, only able to muster a 19th ranking so far.  That's sure to improve in short order.
• The defending champion Colorado Briar Jumpers fall in right behind Minnesota in the 9th spot.  The PYTH numbers say they have been slightly unlucky so far far, and they do sport a +13 rDIFF. 
• A strange team to figure out through their first nine games in the Oakland Osprey.  They rank in the bottom four in the league in both offense and fielding, but their staff comes home with a 2nd place ranking in the pitching category.  That's good enough to vault them into 10th overall.
• Two team's that sat atop of the standing last season, the Pittsburgh Crawfords and the San Francisco Quakers, come home in the 11th and 12th spots respectively in the rankings.  Each team has been victimized in one category in the early going.  Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in fielding, while the Quakers are a surprising 23rd in offense.
• The demise of the Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers may be exaggerated.  Ranking dead last in the preseason rankings, they actually come home in the 14th spot here.  Their pitching is still going to be a concern, ranking dead last.  That's what happens when you sport the league's highest ERA and WHIP.
• Whereas Arizona made a positive jump up 13 spots from the preseason to these rankings, the Houston Buffaloes went the other direction.  They were the 5th ranked team in the preseason rankings, but fall to 17th here.  Interestingly enough, the Buffaloes are tied along with Arizona and Colorado in their division, each with 5-4 records.  And while Arizona grades out as the highest ranked team, they are the only one of the three without a positive rDIFF thus far.
• The Classic League's Metro Division has the top two teams in these rankings.  They also have two of the bottom three teams as well.  The Brooklyn Broken Arrow Bums grade out 22nd, while the New York Bombers bring up the rear, ranking 24th.  Both teams are no doubt looking forward to some games outside of their division.

Please feel free to leave any comments or make any suggestions.  The next edition will obviously have more games played, so more data to analyse.  Hopefully the rankings will even themselves out a little.  Until then.